WIND OF CHANGE BLOWING THROUGH TORONTO

TORONTO, ON — It is safe to say things in Toronto didn’t go as planned this NHL season. Once again, an earlier-than-expected playoff exit has left the Maple Leafs and its fanbase angry and frustrated, and big questions await big answers.

Losing to the Florida Panthers in seven games of the second-round this spring is an improvement over last season’s first-round, seven game exit. But the end result is the same, and that is clearly not good enough – not for a franchise with aspirations of ending a now-58-year Stanley Cup drought.

Changes are coming in Toronto, that much appears to be evident. What may be unclear is the extent of these soon-to-be changes.

The first change may come all the way at the top before any moves occur on the ice.

Maple Leafs President & Alternate Governor Brendan Shanahan is on an expiring contract. Barring a very well-kept secret of an extension, Shanahan’s current deal is set to expire end-of-day June 30. Will this be the first shoe to drop?

MLSE, the parent company of Maple Leafs, hired Keith Pelley as President and CEO on January 11, 2024, and he officially began overseeing all areas of the corporation on April 2, 2024. Pelley sat alongside Shanahan and Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving in May 2024 at the team’s end-of-season press conference and stated their fans “not only deserve but demand a championship.”

Well, they’ll have to wait at least another year.

I attended Shanahan’s introductory press conference in April 2014 when then-MLSE President and CEO Tim Leiweke conveyed what a “great opportunity” it was for the Leafs to bring on a “hockey guy” in the form of Shanahan to oversee the Leafs for what they hoped would be “for the next 20 years.” It’s been 11 years, and the Maple Leafs have advanced only as far as the second-round twice.

For what it’s worth, there has been chatter around the League, since the start of Round Two of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, that changes may be coming to Toronto’s front office. Maybe the are tightening things up? Maybe they make a move at the top?

No matter what happens with Shanahan, roster construction is not really his responsibility. It hasn’t been, contrary to public perception. Yes, he has engaged in some of the decision-making in the past, but that changed when Treliving took over. Treliving is now the architect, and it will be up to him to fix any chinks in the Blue and White armour.

The Maple Leafs have $26,859,001 in salary cap space going into the 2025-26 season, as per our friends at PuckPedia. Toronto may free up even more space if they move, or buy out, David Kampf and/or Calle Jarnkrok, which is under consideration, according to a team source.

A solid chunk of their cap allotment will go to pending restricted free agent Matthew Knies, who is likely to command a contract in the three-to-five-year range and an AAV of $7 million or higher. Fellow RFAs-to-be Pontus Holmberg and Nick Robertson are also in need of new deals, as are forwards Max Pacioretty and Steven Lorentz, both of whom contributed in positive ways this season, but can become unrestricted free agents July 1.

But at the top of the roster totem poll are Mitch Marner and John Tavares, both pending UFAs.

Asked about his future following Sunday’s loss, Marner declined to get into details about his future: “I don’t have any thoughts right now,” he said. “Pretty devastated with what just happened.”

Maybe he will share more Tuesday morning during the club’s end of season media availabilities. Maybe he won’t. Maybe he’s said all he needs to say.

Marner is going to get $13 million and up as a free agent this July. Almost every team will check in on him if he hits the open market. Both Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris, know it. After six straight seasons of hitting or being on pace for 90+ points, he finally cracked the century mark and put up 102 points this season. That will be tough to replace.

I don’t think he has fully closed the door on the Leafs, but like I wrote about after the trade deadline in March, I fully expect teams like Chicago, Los Angeles, Utah, Pittsburgh, San Jose and Calgary to pursue him aggressively, if given the opportunity. Marner is going to get paid. It’s just a matter of where.

Tavares, who has repeatedly voiced his desire to stay, could stick around on a two- or three-year deal at around half of his current $11 million AAV.

Treliving and his staff will evaluate what path they want to take. Can they replace someone like Marner and/or Tavares with other, better-suited players via free agency or the trade market?

The Leafs have the cap space, but they lack the draft capital and own a shallow prospect pool to go after any elite power forwards. And make no mistake, that is what Toronto needs. Even if they somehow keep Marner, the club lacks a true top-six power forward. I believe Knies will get to that level, but he’s not there, yet.

As I mentioned on ‘The Sheet’ with Jeff Marek last Thursday, having someone in the dirty areas, who can throw the body and protect his linemates will only benefit players like Marner and Auston Matthews. Knies will get there, but Toronto is still one player down in their top-six.

I’m sure the Leafs, and about 30 other clubs, would love to get their gloves on Sam Bennett, who will also have the pick of the litter if he hits July 1, but I’m not sold on him leaving the Panthers; time will tell.

Treliving will surely explore his trade options, but he will need to be creative.

Is Chris Kreider the right target? The New York Rangers are expected throw his name out there again as they try to free up some cap space. The former 52-goal scorer had a down year, but his $6.5 million cap hit, and style of player, could fit nicely on the team’s second line if they feel he can regain 30+ goal form.

What about Lawson Crouse in Utah? He’s a mammoth of a player, who also had a (big time) down year. Would he be available, on the cheap after putting up 18 points this season? Is he even worth the risk?

Do the Leafs take another swing at St. Louis captain Brayden Schenn? Will Dallas entertain calls on Mason Marchment again to free up cap space of their own?

Change is not a bad thing. It is needed, and it will come. The extent of it won’t be known for several weeks, but next season’s Maple Leafs squad should look a little different.

HERE AND THERE

• As the New York Islanders go through their next round of GM interviews, a lot has been made of the future of Head Coach Patrick Roy. Yes, the new GM will dictate Roy’s future, but something to consider: Roy is under contract for four more seasons (he’s entering the final year of his current deal before his three-year extension, which he signed last off-season, kicks in).

• Speaking of coach contracts, a tale of two sides: Adam Foote’s deal with Vancouver is three-years at $1.5 million per season, while Mike Sullivan’s five-year deal with the N.Y. Rangers averages out to $6.5 million annually (it alters year by year).

• If the Leafs re-sign Tavares, I would not be shocked if they pursued Brock Nelson in free agency to play alongside him, assuming he also hits the market July 1.

• Flames assistant coach Brad Larsen tossed his hat in the ring for some of the HC vacancies, but I’m hearing he will remain on Calgary’s bench next season.

• On the Penguins head coach search: it sounds like D.J. Smith is high on Pittsburgh’s list, which also includes Mitch Love.

• As for Boston, Marco Sturm remains a serious contender, but the Bruins are taking their time.

• First order of business for Kings GM Ken Holland will be trying to get defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov locked into a new contract. His next AAV should come well above $7 million.

• Is Nik Ehlers’ run in Winnipeg finally over? He’s a UFA this July and barring a major change of heart, all signs point to him hitting the market.

• Final note: Regardless of what city you’re in, if you throw shit on the ice, especially something that risks injury, you’re an idiot.