November 18, 2022 | 4:30pm ET
By Anthony Di Marco, TheFourthPeriod.com
NO PANIC IN CALGARY JUST YET
Jonathan Huberdeau, left wing
MONTREAL, QC — Calgary Flames General Manager Brad Treliving took the word “polarizing” to an entirely new level this off-season.
With forward Johnny Gaudreau walking in to Columbus free agency and 2016 first-round pick Matthew Tkachuk wanting out and subsequently dealt to Florida, the Flames’ roster went through a major facelift. Saying goodbye to their two best offensive players, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and Mackenzie Weegar were brought in to soften the landing and keep the Flames in a “win-now” window. Huberdeau and Weegar were acquired via the Tkachuk trade and signed their eight-year extensions, while Kadri inked a seven year deal as a free agent.
Calgary, who finished atop the Pacific Division last year, was looking to build off last year’s regular-season success, which ended in a disappointing second-round loss in the playoffs. Even with Gaudreau and Tkachuk gone, Calgary’s roster is set to win now; attempting a rebuild would’ve been an uphill task.
Elias Lindholm is in the prime of his career at 27. The likes of Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson are entering their best years on the backend. Jacob Markstrom has proven to be one of the most consistent top goaltenders in the NHL and is under contract until 2026. Rebuilding never made sense for a Calgary team built for the present.
Unfortunately, the beginning of the 2022-23 season has left a lot to be desired.
The Flames have been able to tread water 16 games into the season, keeping their head just above water with 16 points (7-7-2). Going into Thursday night, they had won back-to-back games, but a 4-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning has resulted in just two wins in their last 10 games.
It’s clear this is not the start Treliving has envisioned.
The Flames were expected to be a true Stanley Cup contender this season; yours truly had them winning the Western Conference and reaching the Stanley Cup Final. The season is still young, and the Flames are still right in the playoff hunt, but the start has been very disappointing, regardless.
What has gone wrong?
For starters, Markstrom has been a shell of himself. After being a finalist for the Vezina Trophy last season and sporting a .922 save percentage, Markstrom has struggled mightily out of the gate with a .887 SV%. Per Money Puck, among goaltenders who have played at least five games, Markstrom ranked 26th in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 with 0.175 going into Thursday’s action.
Arguably more so than the goaltending, Calgary’s lackluster offense has been a major problem this season.
Aside from Kadri, Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli, the offensive contributors on a consistent basis have been few and far between. Newcomer Huberdeau has struggled to gel with the Flames early on with just two goals and eight points on the season. Andrew Mangiapane, who was expected to take a big step with Gaudreau and Tkachuk out of the picture, has just three goals and six points. Dillon Dube has been a disappointment, registering just one goal and four points through the first 16 games.
Calgary’s “process” has also dipped, per Money Puck, as the club’s Expected Goal Differential per 60 is 0.17 (11th) compared to 0.48 (fifth) compared to last season.
Is a move on the horizon?
As TFP reported earlier in the week, and was discussed by Elliotte Friedman on Hockey Night in Canada, the Flames have been discussing bringing in a forward to help with their offensive woes. Asking around about this, while the Flames are definitely in the market for a forward, their cap restraints make it may to acquire one in the immediate future.
The Flames are one of the few top teams not presently in LTIR space, which will benefit them as we get deeper into the season; they project to have a little more than $3 million in cap space by the NHL Trade Deadline. But as of today, Calgary has less than $900,000 to work with, meaning any deal would have to be money in, money out.
There has been speculation about Montreal forward Josh Anderson as a potential fit. Anderson’s $5.5 million AAV would blow Calgary’s cap, so any move to acquire the 28-year-old power forward would take some cap gymnastics. But to this point, I’ve been told that Calgary has not specifically talked about Anderson.
What about the defense?
Oliver Kylington has yet to play this season as he has been away from the team for personal reasons. Veteran Michael Stone went down with injury recently, which has resulted on third pair composed of Nikita Zadorov and a rotating cast beside him.
Even with the injuries, it doesn’t appear the Flames will be searching for imminent help on the backend, as the internal belief is they will be “fine” once their big boys on the backend get their games straight.
The start in Calgary has been disappointing but it appears major fixes will have to come from within. There is no question Treliving will continue to scan the market for offensive help, but that will not be the major factor in the Flames getting back on track.
The Flames have not played bad this season, but expectations are much higher. The underlying process has been good enough to suggest that once some players figure things out, this ship can get back on track. Markstrom will not continue to stop puck at a sub-.900 rate, Huberdeau won’t finish the season with 50 or less points, and the defense will eventually get healthy and start to gel.
The Flames have been able to tread water to this point, which has kept management from going into full panic mode. The major pieces to turn this around are already on the team – it’s now about on ice execution. But if things don’t get on the right track by the time the calendar flips to 2023, we may be singing a different tune. Too much is riding on this season for it to be a throw away year.
For now, there is no reason to smash the panic button. The Flames are in a decent spot and have yet to even scratch the service on their potential ceiling. But it’s time to right the ship.
