December 23, 2022 | 3:00pm ET
By Anthony Di Marco, TheFourthPeriod.com
CLARITY ON THE HORIZON IN PHILLY
Kevin Hayes, forward
MONTREAL, QC — With the annual holiday roster freeze in effect and the New Year around the corner, the Philadelphia Flyers find themselves in familiar territory.
After a hot start that had many (including management) wondering if some pre-season expectations should’ve been adjusted, the Flyers quickly came back down to earth on the heels of a 10-game winless skid. Now sitting with a record of 11-16-7 and second last in the Eastern Conference, the season has become what we all ultimately knew it would be: a year of stabilization and finding out what they are.
As Brian Smith discussed with Jason Myrtetus on the Flyers Broadcast Network last week, it feels like clarity is coming the Flyers’ way over these next three months.
Despite a season mired by losing and injuries – forward Sean Couturier has not played in over a calendar year and right wing Cam Atkinson underwent season-ending neck surgery this week – the team has started to figure out what they have in some of the young players. Forwards Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett, both former first-round selections in 2017 and now linemates, have found a groove, tallying four goals and four assists and four goals and two assists over the last nine games, respectively.
After back-to-back disappointing seasons, right wing Travis Konecny has rebounded in a big way under new Head Coach John Tortorella, on pace for his best offensive season; he currently has 14 goals and 16 assists through 28 contests. Goaltender Carter Hart has proven to be the club’s MVP to date this season, being the catalyst and main reason for the lion’s share of the team’s victories. Scott Laughton has emerged as the de-facto captain, wearing the only letter in the club’s first season without a captain in more than 15 seasons.
But with some constants, there are still some questions that need to be answered.
Two players that have been at the subject of moderate trade chatter over the last year or so are defensemen Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim. The latter’s name was (un)officially taken off the trade block earlier this season after inking a new eight-year, $50 million extension.
In the case of Provorov, the 25-year-old “minute muncher” has had a decent bounce back season but has yet to reach the level he was at in 2019-20. Based on conversations I’ve had with those close to the situation, while they aren’t actively shopping him, he is nowhere close to untouchable. That being said, I have heard the Flyers like the overall look of their defensive outlook in the short to mid term; I don’t imagine they’re in a hurry to break it up, especially without a clear cut, #1 defenseman in the system to be Provorov’s potential heir.
As Tortorella and the Flyers’ brass continue to figure out who is part of the long term picture, there are some players that will obviously not make the cut.
According to Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast, the vultures have already begun to circle on forward James van Riemsdyk’s availability ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline. On an expiring contract ($7 million AAV), it is no surprise to hear this and there is a full expectation the forward will be moved between now and the beginning of March, especially when you consider the club attempted valiantly to move him last summer.
Defenseman Justin Braun, who has been a healthy scratch more than once this season, will also likely find his way out of Philadelphia for the second straight season by the Deadline. Shipped to the New York Rangers last season for a third-round selection, I imagine we will see a move similar to that for a team in the hunt for a veteran on their bottom pair ahead of the playoffs.
Forwards Patrick Brown and Zack MacEwen are both on expiring contracts – the latter set to become an RFA – and will likely generate moderate interests, although neither will be involved in any earth-shattering transaction.
But those names are low hanging fruit; what about core players who aren’t part of the plan?
If you hadn’t heard, Tortorella made waves last weekend scratching the team’s point leader Kevin Hayes. Hayes is enjoying his best offensive season to date, tallying nine goals and 21 assists through 33 games this season. Despite the offensive output, Hayes’ defensive gaffs and passive play has caught him in the coach’s cross hairs on more than one occasion, being benched for periods at a time more than once this season and being moved from centre to wing to mitigate his defensive liabilities.
Since joining the Flyers in 2019, Hayes has more or less produced as expected. With 133 points in 205 regular-season games since the beginning of 2019-20, Hayes’ point totals have averaged out to about 53 points per 82 games. With Covid-shortened seasons and injuries, Hayes has yet to play at least 70 games for the Flyers in a full season; we will likely see that for the first time this season.
In Year 4 of a seven-year, $50 million contract, it’s tough to envision Hayes being moved in-season. With so many teams operating in LTIR and being unable to accrue cap space ahead of the Trade Deadline, most teams need moves of significance to be “money in, money out” transactions.
A potential Hayes buyout was speculated about by Larry Brooks and on 32 Thoughts this week, but I can’t imagine it would ever get to that point.
Hayes’ $7.1 million AAV for three more seasons is a heavy ticket and the Flyers would almost certainly have to eat money in order to get any decent value for him, but as one Western Conference executive said to me, his raw point production over the last four seasons will likely result in some team taking a shot on the player. The going rate for second line centres is anywhere from $5 million to $7 million nowadays (i.e. Vincent Trotchek’s deal) and will come with a term of no less than five years if obtained through Free Agency; if the Flyers make Hayes a $5 million to $5.5 million player, it could be attractive for a team in the market for a 2C.
Hayes does hold a 12-team no-trade list in his contract, which will limit where the Flyers could move him in any potential deal. It’s also important to note that, based on what I was told by a team source last week, the Flyers have yet to even explore moving on from Hayes.
What’s an even more pressing question is who will be making these calls by the time the Trade Deadline comes around.
As I (and Anthony SanFilippo of Crossing Broad) have wrote about in past weeks, there are growing questions about the future of General Manager Chuck Fletcher. As one team source said to me last week, “there’s a lot of rumors floating around” within the organization right now.
To the best of my knowledge, Flyers’ upper management have been weighing their options in recent weeks about the future of the front office. Special Assistant to the GM Danny Briere has long been thought to be the heir-apparent to the GM chair, but I was told last week that they have not officially approached him about taking the position imminently. Last month, I was told that any suggestion that an official position on Fletcher’s future was premature at that point.
Briere is apart of Team Canada at the upcoming Spengler Cup Tournament, and as SanFilippo said on the “Snow the Goalie” podcast last week, is going to be scouting at the World Junior Hockey Championship over the holidays – any official elevation of his role would come after these two obligations are fulfilled.
Whether it is Briere, Fletcher or someone else driving the bus, it does feel like the Flyers will be in a position of clarity once the Trade Deadline comes and goes.
The team has long needed a clear direction and it feels like it is finally starting to be on the horizon. For a team barreling towards missing the playoffs for a third straight season and the fourth time in five years, clarity is the exact thing this team – and fanbase – desperately needs right now.
