LAK UFA: IT’S A MATTER OF TRUST

LOS ANGELES, CA — During one of the multiple media availabilities with Los Angeles Kings GM Ken Holland’s over the past week, I asked him if his team was a Stanley Cup contender.

“I believe so,” he said. “I look up front, I think we’ve got three really good lines. Any team that knows how to check and know how to keep the puck out of the net, you’ve got to keep banging away.”

And bang away he did when the opening bell rang at noon Pacific on Tuesday, adding five new players to the roster in what appears to be a concerted effort to play more like the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers.

The acquisition themes were size and veteran presence, adding Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin on the blueline, Joel Armia and their longtime nemesis Corey Perry to bolster the bottom-six forward depth.

As surprising as the Perry call was, the addition of goaltender Anton Forsberg was a greater surprise. With David Rittich opting to join the New York Islanders as an unrestricted free agent, the thought was Pheonix Copley and the young goaltending depth (Erik Portillo, Carter George and Hampton Slukynsky) would be enough support behind Vezina Trophy finalist Darcy Kuemper. The former Ottawa Senator goalie has signed a two-year, $4.5 million deal, settling the backup goaltending position.  

But if Holland’s goal is to replicate what Bill Zito, Paul Maurice, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov and the rest of the Cool Cats have done, he admits he cannot do it in one fell, albeit big swoop.

“I don’t know if (I can shift the roster to play more like Florida) in one summer, it’s got to be a methodical approach to making changes,” he said. “But I don’t know if every team needs to play the same way.”

Maybe not all the teams but it sure looks like next season’s Kings team will try, relying on more size and age than any roster in recent memory. The prospects of adding high-end talent like Mitch Marner never materialized, the former was solely focused on the prospect of teaming with Jack Eichel as his best chance to win the Stanley Cup while Brock Boeser never got to the point of considering Los Angeles as his new home, staying in Vancouver for seven more years at the last minute, another surprising Canada Day outcome.

I got a pointed answer from Holland in Tuesday’s media chat about the franchise’s status as it pertains to attracting and retaining high-end talent. Going back to the 2024 trade deadline, Linus Ullmark declined to accept a trade that would have moved PL Dubois to Boston. This season, Rob Blake reportedly had a deal for Brad Marchand but Marchand only had interest in the Panthers and more recently, a deal for Calgary’s Rasmus Anderson was scuttled because, like Ullmark, he had no interest in extending his contract in the walk year of his current deal. It was anticipated that Los Angeles was a potential destination for both Marner and Boeser, however, neither opted to pursue opportunities in Southern California.  

A bad run of luck? Perhaps. But to target multiple players at various positions and at different stages of their career yet coming up empty must give some pause as to why. Maybe it’s a consequence of the continuing first-round exits becoming a barrier to attracting and retaining talent. Players who want long Spring runs can’t be shown a track record that aligns with their championship designs.

But back to the players that did arrive, I recall chatting with Dean Lombardi about his early days as Kings GM and the topic of signing free agents came up. He reminded me that in his first off-season he signed seven free agents while knowing that the team was not close to being a playoff team.

Five UFAs isn’t seven but it’s more change than any other GMs made on July 1. If the signings were additions to an 81-point team, they are not additions that would take a team to the 100-point plateau.

But for a GM who believes that improving the team on the margins, a manager who holds the feeling that it’s a very good team that needs just an extra few percentages in their favor to win past Game 82, it’s a gamble he believes he can win.

Despite some fans’ distaste, “10 Perry” proved to be an impactful player during both the regular-season and playoffs.  Setting aside the fact that he was the Oilers’ second leading post-season goal scorer, he was one of the wingers Coach Kris Knoblach trusted as the third facet of the nuclear option when he chose to load up McDavid and Draisaitl on one line. It’s doubtful he’ll get to 19 regular-season goals again and he needs to play less than the 81 games of this past season as his value will be derived from his postseason play.

Armia brings more sturdiness and assuming a fourth line role, an upgrade from Trevor Lewis. A right shot who looks to slot in LW4 in today’s depth chart, was a fixture on the Montreal third line with Jake Evans and Emil Heineman, his strong suit is the penalty kill (three shorthanded goals) and could be a third line options at times.

The windup of the change in defense is the equivalent of a trade – Gavrikov and Spence for Ceci and Dumoulin. It’s a trade you wouldn’t make as a fantasy GM but it’s borne out of necessity with the Gavrikov departure. The new pair adds size and age to the blueline in favor of skill for a group that was average in productivity (14th last season).

It’s fair to criticize the deals as overpayments for depth defensemen but the same was said for the Joel Edmundson deal last summer, a contract that became one of the better value signings. If Ceci and Dumoulin are the incumbent third pair, there are worse options – Ceci is one of the better shock blocking defenseman (though he had plenty of opportunities in his 54 games in San Jose which skewed the numbers) and Dumoulin was the best defenseman in the Devils first round loss to the Carolina Hurricanes (Sheldon Keefe played him almost 30 minutes a night in the five game series defeat).

The focus will be on this replacement pair, but their effectiveness ultimately depends on the play of the top four (Edmundson, Doughty, Brandt Clarke and Mikey Anderson). Of those four, Doughty is the biggest X-factor; his catastrophic injury and his play after his return while not fully healed muted the fact that he entered last season coming off a very solid 2023-’24 season. The 27 minutes-a-night, 15 goal defenseman may be in his rear-view mirror but he needs to elevate from the 80% of effectiveness he produced.  If Ceci and Dumoulin are asked to play elevated minutes (defined in the low to mid-20’s), the results may not be pretty.

The theme of these signings is clear, it reminds me of a Billy Joel song from the mid-80’s, “A Matter of Trust.” After multiple conversations with Hiller, Holland chose not to touch the team’s core but supplement and overhaul its depth. When you have McDavid, Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, you can play your core incessantly and still get to a Cup Final but only one coach has that luxury. Hiller used three players less than eight minutes a night in five or more games during the Edmonton series (Spence 7:31, Jeff Mallot 4:53, Sammy Helenuis 3:58) and three more players who played less than the full compliment of games (Turcotte, Lewis and Moverare).

When it came to winning time, there weren’t enough players earning trust to play in game-ending situations, had there been more reliable options, their playoff dragon could have been slayed. If these four skaters are on the roster come next Spring, they must give more support than the minute contributions that was a symptom in the four straight losses against the Oilers.

It will be a different look, but will it be a better look?

For the Kings to approach their 105-point 2024-25 season standings total, the offense will have to drive more production. It’s a big ask to match the 31-6-4 home record and the defense has taken a sideways if not a back step. If it is a blueline backstep, Kuemper will have to stay at the Vezina level he produced this season.

But if next season is truly about winning in the playoffs and it must be, a standings regression is insignificant assuming it is not a fall out of the top eight in the Western Conference. The Panthers and Oilers finished third in their divisions and regressed 12 and 3 standings points, respectively and found a path to the Final.

The Kings are not the Panthers or Oilers.

You can make the case for the team being better or worse next season based on your view of Holland’s acquisitions. I can’t definitively say the Kings are better entering next season and deferring my overall opinion until the Fall, as training camp and the early regular season will establish whether this team has a better chance at elevating in the playoffs.