LAK POSTMORTEM: SKATING IN PLACE?

LOS ANGELES, CA — The reality that hits the 31 NHL teams that don’t win the Stanley Cup found the Los Angeles Kings late Saturday night in Downtown L.A.

With their sticks and gloves tucked away for the summer, the franchise moves into the off-season with the belief that they are on the right path back to the championship days of over a decade ago.

When the team reported for their last official duty of the 2022-23 season, meeting with media for the final time, to a man they believed they were an improved version of the squad that fell to the Edmonton Oilers a year ago. I saw more disappointment this year from the words and facial expressions than after last season’s Game 7 loss at Rogers Place when many of the players experienced the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time.

Belief is a great thing for a sports team to have, everyone buying into a program and all pulling the same way on the playoff rope. If I had to pick a word to characterize this season’s team, it would be “resilient.” This team shrugged off multi-goal deficits they couldn’t in previous seasons. Most preseason prognostications had Los Angeles regressing from its 99-point 2021-22 season but after taking a good part of the first half to assimilate Coach Todd McLellan’s 1-3-1 defensive scheme, they became one of the better teams in the NHL after the All-Star break and with the additions, they believed a deep playoff run was ahead.

Los Angeles came up short in its quest for the first Pacific Division title and a late stretch of .500 hockey (Kevin Fiala’s knee injury was a major factor) nestled them again in the division’s three seed to set a rematch of last season’s compelling seven-game series with Edmonton.  In addition to being incrementally better in the regular-season (99 points to a second-best franchise record 104), the Kings appeared to be better equipped to advance to the second-round for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2014 because they possessed:

• A healthy Drew Doughty

• A healthy Viktor Arvidsson

• Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi adding scoring depth – opponents had to defend three lines not the two or one of prior seasons

• Better defense and goaltending with the Columbus arrivals

It looked good early with the Kings forging two series leads, winning Games 1 and 3 and taking control of Game 4 before the Edmonton offense overwhelmed them by scoring 16 goals in the last 8+ periods of play.  The series might have finished earlier if the Kings had been less disciplined – a 43 percent penalty kill is an embarrassing statistic that was partially muted by the fact the Oilers only drew 16 minor penalties on its way to nine powerplay goals (not the highest total in the first-round but a decisive factor).

Given the net difference in powerplay goals was only two (lost in the glare of the Oilers proficiency was the Kings effectiveness on the powerplay – 33.3 percent) where the series was lost was the play in the other 50+ minutes of regulation. The game-tying and game-winning goals in Game 4, the pivotal goals in Game 5 and the series game winner were all surrendered at even strength – the facet of play the Kings were thought to hold an advantage coming in and where Edmonton improved throughout the series.

Putting up another long but losing battle with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in opposing sweaters is something the team can grow from – there’s no shame in losing to the best two players in the NHL being used in heavy rotation – they both registered more than 27 minutes in the Game 6 clincher, but as McLellan said pointedly in his exit availability, neither are going away soon.

So, what to make of this season? What’s going to happen in the off-season? How does this team get to the next level? Or maybe the better question to ask is – how do they avoid becoming the Minnesota Wild?

The Minnesota Wild, you ask? Why should they avoid the Wildness?

The Wild are one of those teams that are just talented enough, just competitive enough to get to the post season but isn’t a championship threat. There’s Minnesota good – they’ve made the playoffs in nine of the last 10 seasons but the 10,000 Lakes really bad – seven consecutive first-round playoff series.

The Blake administration has produced three playoff appearances in six seasons and has returned to post season play in consecutive seasons after deconstructing the roster after the 2018 playoff sweep at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights. There has been demonstrated progression over the past four seasons (from 64 standings points to a prorated 71 in the 2020 season to 99 to 104), but the 0-3 playoff series record asks the question if this really good team can become great.

What are the next steps in the short term?

GOTTA GET GAV

The lanky Russian defenseman fit like a glove on the Los Angeles blueline from day one, providing stability on the second pair with Matt Roy and was surprisingly aggressive in the offensive zone.  On an undersized defense, his reach and length were welcomed, but without a long playoff run, the first-round pick surrendered in the deal for him and Joonas Korpisalo can only pay off if Vladislav Gavrikov is signed. It’s probably going to cost LA somewhere in the six-year, $30M-36M range, but losing him to free agency puts the Kings back to square one on the left defensive depth chart behind Mikey Anderson.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE

You can argue that the other half of the Columbus deal, Korpisalo, is the best goaltender in the organization presently and he must come back to cash in an Ohio Daily Double. The uncertainty of Cal Petersen status as an NHL goaltender and questioning if another 24-6-3 season can be coaxed out of Pheonix Copley makes the case for a return for the Finnish netminder.

The determining factor is what you believe Korpisalo is – is he the 2.13 GAA, .921 save percentage stopper of the regular-season or the 3.77 GAA, .892 save percentage guy who worsened as the series got deeper. The biggest concern was Edmonton’s ability to beat him from distance – Evander Kane’s game-tying goal and Zach Hyman’s game winner in Game 4, Kane’s PPG in Game 5, Klim Kostin’s lead 4-3 goal and the eventual series-clincher from Kailer Yamamoto all were. There may be better options in the goalie carousel market this summer, so letting Korpisalo go to market isn’t a regrettable loss.

SIZE MATTERS(?)

You know the old saying, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog,” but sometimes, actually a lot of times, the big dogs win. There is no question this team has necessary tenacity and resolve to move deeper in the post-season, but the inability to wear down opponents in long playoff series is a facet that needs to be amplified in depth positions. As someone who has covered the team for over two decades, it’s stunning to see 11 forwards out of 12 registering double figures in goals scored (I’ll talk about the 12th forward soon).

The Fiala effect and the Gabe growth was the primary reason for the progression, but without some more size somewhere in the lineup – preferably on defense (if Gavrikov doesn’t return, Doughty at 6’1’ 200 is their biggest defenseman) going into next season. The players struggled when asked why the penalty kill was ineffective, but a few suggested that more shot blocking would help, a facet usually supplied by the blueline corps.  The other issue is even with a Gavrikov return, the team has too many of the same type of defender – undersized righthanded shots – and the need to balance out the depth chart is high on the list of tasks but moving multiple positional players out in one off-season is a difficult task.

THE BUY IN

The closing comments by Doughty and captain Anze Kopitar shed light on how the veterans view the current regime. Kopitar’s stated desire to be a “one-franchise player” and willingness to discuss a contract extension over the summer combined Doughty’s avowing to get vengeance on Edmonton next season affirms team leadership is in sync with the coaching staff’s tactics and team direction. The roster’s ability to assimilate the 1-3-1 defense installed this season (and yes, something must be done with the PK – either scheme or personnel-wise) is further proof that the small faction of fans that were calling for a coaching change (not just an L.A. thing) haven’t assessed properly or ignored the strides the team has made over the past three seasons.  

LITTLE THINGS/BIGGER THINGS/ANYTHING

Quinton Byfield scored his first career playoff goal in Game 5. Also, Quinton Byfield scored that goal after being demoted to the third line after a poor defensive effort in the first period of Game 5. He’s the 10th leading scorer in his 2020 NHL Draft class. He made strides in his second campaign, but still hasn’t had a signature game in the 100+ NHL games he’s participated in. That’s my view.

“He took steps to be a prominent player on our team where he wasn’t last year in the playoffs. We liked him at the wing, but we ultimately feel he will still be a centerman. His effectiveness with his length, turning pucks over. When he joined the line with Kopitar and (Adrian) Kempe, he gave us some balance in the lineup. Yes, he does need to be a more effective offensive player but he’s only 20.” That’s Rob Blake’s view.

“That big frame of his is going to get naturally stronger but he’s going to have to work at it. I saw him get many more scoring chances than last year and if he got to 10-12 goals this season, we wouldn’t be talking about (his lack of goal production) as much as we have. That tells me he has to work on some finishing, confidence and polish around the net, maybe a sense of timing. He was able to have an impact on the game without scoring goals.” That’s Todd McLellan’s view.

What we haven’t seen in addition to lack of goals is a full 82 games season from Byfield – a broken ankle limited him to 40 games last season, and he disclosed he was ill for a month (with a fever) in this 53-game season. The level of play to where he ascends is debatable and the comparables drawn to him in his draft eligible year (Kopitar and Evgeni Malkin) show why projecting what teenagers will do in the NHL is a risky line of work. What isn’t debatable is the fact that next season is pivotal for him. For some using Kempe’s developmental arc to align with Byfield’s is a cautionary tale – waiting five years to emerge a Kempe did is not ideally what you expect from a second-overall pick given the GM says the team is in a championship window. And before I get accused of setting up a Byfield dartboard in my office...

NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK?

If you’ve followed my coverage over the past few seasons, my tag line during the rebuilding days was #playthekids. In the seasons where the roster transitioned from veteran presence to untested youth, there was an opportunity to see who could and more importantly, wouldn’t be an impact player. Throughout the entire rebuild, the messaging has been that the future is bright primarily because of the organizational depth. With Blake saying the team is in a championship window and hinting there are no big moves along the lines of the past two off-seasons, the progression of the young talent is critical to move to a legitimate championship window. You know what you’re going to get from Kopitar, Kempe, Fiala, etc., but outside of Vliardi’s emergence, everyone is still waiting on the arrival of impact players.

Analyzing the contributions of the top two picks of each draft, it’s there’s more disappointment than achievement, more bottom-six players than goal-scorers, more untapped potential than impact from its high picks.

Draft picks are like new cars once they’re made, they immediately depreciate like your new whip when it hits the pavement just outside the dealership. Four first-round picks from 2018 to 2020 have produced 17 regular-season goals and in classic Monday morning quarterbacking except for Byfield and Brandt Clarke, they wouldn’t be at the top of a prospective trade, so using some if not all those 10 picks for established talent would have been a better bet than the ones they made on those kids as a group.

If you assume you’re getting the maximum out of the established veterans (as great a season as Kopitar had, he’s not a 100 point player and Kempe elevating to 50G is a big ask, Fiala is a good bet to repeat to be in the 80-point range) and an impact player isn’t imported in the summer, it’s apparent that a breakthrough season is needed from Byfield, Clarke or any prospect of your choice to get this team to the next level.

In the big picture, the 2022-23 season for the Los Angeles Kings was entertaining and improved, and with better execution they could have defeated the Oilers and would have had a legitimate shot to emerge from a balanced but not powerful Western Conference.

My question: Is running it back with a team that failed to win a playoff round more like skating in place than progressing towards a championship? If you thought the past two seasons were pivotal for the Los Angeles franchise, there’s even more at stake for the next 82.

Let’s see what the summer brings.