LA20: NOT SO SPECIAL, NOT SO BAD

LOS ANGELES, CA -- The word I’ve been preaching since Day 1 of Training Camp in Los Angeles is “patience.” The championship days are long gone with the representation of those times limited to the Stanley Cup banners that are shown during the playing of the Star-Spangled Banner at Staples Center. There have been more losses than wins (8-11-1), no expectations of playing games of consequence in late-March and early-April and early pickings in June’s NHL Draft in Montreal were the expectations when the puck dropped on Opening Day.

The team’s slow start was a clear signal that the future state of the franchise is where the fan base’s focus should be.

But with the season one-quarter complete, maybe, just maybe, those expectations should be raised a bit. There has been an adaptation to coach Todd McLellan’s system at even strength which increases in effectiveness with each 60 minute effort and Jonathan Quick has gotten off the deck to string together several solid performances between the pipes. As a group, early season late game failures have started to turn into game-finishing successes.

There has been a definitive progression from Game 10 to Game 20. The 4-3 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights marked the seventh consecutive game Los Angeles has yielded three goals or less. While they’re not at the level of defending as the New York Islanders are, the stretch reversed the trend of the poor defensive play (defense and goaltending) on the Central Division road swing a few weeks ago that was the genesis of lineup changes. And if you want a little more proof, the biggest eyesore of the early season, the penalty kill has killed off 17 of the last 19 extra man opportunities – a rate of 89.4%.

Is this progression a signal to LA fans to start squirreling green away for playoff tickets in April?

Not exactly.

But given the mediocrity of the NHL Western Conference and their improved play at home, Los Angeles has a puncher’s chance to move down a few spots for next summer’s Draft and up a few in the overall standings as the holidays approach and depending on your point of view, that may or may not be a good thing.

With the group trending in the right direction, I point to some individual performances that lead the way:

• Anze Kopitar – Back on the point-a-game player track he needs to be on for this team to win. He is playing less (more than two minutes a game over last season), shooting a tad bit more and is one of three regular forwards with a plus rating. The horse has returned. Giddy up!

• Sean Walker – Along with Blake Lizotte, Walker is one of the unexpected success stories of the early season. An unheralded free agent signing last season he showed offensive skills in 39 games but now has earned the trust of the coaching staff graduating to top-four defenseman duty. His advanced stats stand up well and is arguably the team’s most effective rearguard. He still has miles to go as a defender and as the Kings defensive pipeline graduates his status may be in jeopardy, but Walker has clearly seized the moment to prove he can play in the NHL.

• Jonathan Quick – Yup, the overall stats are tres, tres ugly, but it’s no surprise that as a team improves in front of a goaltender, his statistics get better. Quick has won the goaltending battle with Jack Campbell, the net is his (13 of 20 game started) and has made Campbell the more likely trade asset as we get closer to the February 24 trade deadline. The Vegas win was the fourth consecutive game Quick has registered a +.900 save percentage and his workload confirms that he is healthy.

• Jeff Carter – This is the second most interesting player (Russian press box guy is first) on the team this season. A rare sight in the post-game locker room since arriving in SoCal, perhaps the 1,000th game celebration combined with his timely game-winner on Saturday will ease him into a vocal elder statesman role on this rebuilding team. Once thought of as an absolute goner via trade, he’s eaten minutes, flipped between wing and center and is presently the team’s second leading goal-scorer, but with a caveat on his production. An analysis of where his goals have been produced show that his once formidable game that combined speed and one of the best wrist shots in the league is no longer in place. Saturday’s game winner – a tip from 17 feet out – was the furthest distance from the net he’s scored this season. He’s gotten some fortuitous bounces around the net and while the team will take every one of a them, it may be dangerous to say Carter will project to a 25-goal pace he’s currently on.

As for the not-so-good, there’s an invisible giant red flag that currently waves besides the two Stanley Cup banners before every home game and it a reminder of...

THE KOVALCHUK SITUATION (...AND A SOLUTION)

It’s easy to say the organization made a mistake with the Ilya Kovalchuk signing. For those who said, “I told you so,” it’s Monday morning quarterbacking at its best. At the time of the deal, the Kings has pursued Max Pacioretty and Jeff Skinner in the trade market and had refused to part with future assets, so when you consider the big picture keep in mind either one of those players would have cost you a first round pick, which turned into Rasmus Kupari, and an additional player (likely Tyler Toffoli). The Kovalchuk route saved at least two assets, possibly three, and only cost the team cash, although Los Angeles is not a free agent player at this point, if they chose to do so this deal would not be an impairment to big game hunting.

Is it a bad personnel decision?

Yes, the Kovalchuk that departed the NHL is clearly not the one who returned, but with a 23 man roster, 50 NHL contracts and an even larger reserve list at a GM’s disposal, one wrong guess on a free agent signing is not an indicator of the inability to build and manage a roster. Every team has their black eye (Bruins – Matt Beleskey, Canadiens – Karl Alzner, Islanders – Andrew Ladd) so this failure should not be a referendum on the current regime’s ability to produce a winner. The excuse of fixing Dean Lombardi’s mess gets weaker each day, but the grade from Luc Robitaille is still incomplete, not an F.

The next step is how to fix it and it’s a difficult task, but that ‘s what you pay managers for.

Mind you, Kovalchuk’s goal production has not been disastrous, (19 in 81 games over two seasons) but his inability to adapt to today’s game and lack of any defensive responsibility has seen him subjected to a healthy scratch status again and it’s hard to beef that given his -36 rating with Los Angeles. It was easier to defend Ilya last season, he started well under John Stevens and then cratered under Willie Desjardins (but there’s a long list of victims from a WD-40 application). He was afforded a clean slate by the Toddfather and with the team still in desperate need of offensive firepower, the stage was set for a comeback that would have him earning some of the $19 million contract he signed two summers ago.

The comeback hasn’t come and the validation Kovalchuk may be looking for probably won’t come in Los Angeles. If he is to succeed, he needs to be on a better team with more than one legitimate NHL center and a team that can better support this type of player.

I spoke to Kings captain Anze Kopitar at the time of the announcement of the press box banishment and he gave me a great analogy – he compared Kovalchuk to Marian Gaborik, another cat who walked to the beat of his own drum when he arrived but was a major factor in the Kings 2014 Stanley Cup championship. Simply put, that team had the makeup to support Gaborik’s freelancing, this rebuilding team is not close to that level and consequently all suffer from it.

Kovalchuk’s contractual status makes it virtually impossible to deal him presently (35+ contract, NMC, reported $ 2.65 million bonus payment on Dec. 15), but it doesn’t mean they should do nothing to try to enhance his value now. The one significant point I disagree with the organization on (and it’s a joint decision by McLellan and Blake) is to have Kovalchuk sitting out. If a trade was close to being done and sitting him would be asset protection, that’s fine, but clearly not the case presently.

What’s needed is some outside-the-box thinking – if we are operating under the assumption that the Kings are not this year’s model of the St. Louis Blues last season and rise from the ashes to win the Stanley Cup, then Job 1A alongside getting youngsters experience is to find a way to showcase Kovalchuk – here’s an option:

Los Angeles’ power play is the weakest facet of its game – ranked 29th out of 31 teams and spread among the two units you have players who have 0, 1 and 2 career power play goals (Lizotte, Amadio and Kempe) while one with 143 PPG sits a few feet away from me in the press box. It’s a matter of execution and talent with the extra man for Los Angeles – they are in the top 10 in the NHL in power play time as result of better 5-on-5 play they draw penalties at a consistent rate. The current level of skill on the units won’t improve their execution regardless of how much practice time is put in but I believe an injection of talent will.

Why not make Kovalchuk a pure offensive specialist? You want to limit his exposure defensively, take him out of those situations and set him up to win. I doubt Kovalchuk would take issue in a scenario where you want him to solely score goals in a limited role. A fourth line player gets 10 minutes a night, so have Kovalchuk on every powerplay opportunity (3-4 chances on average per game), give him the full two minutes to keep teams honest – he has the best one timer on the team – and then pick spots for the rest of the game. Get him on the ice for offensive zone starts, at period ending situations and pair him with Nikolai Prokhorkin, who got a major boost of confidence by scoring his first NHL goal Saturday and would likely welcome it.

As for the trickle up effect of this lineup move, Matt Luff needs a full run with this team – he has the big shot that Austin Wagner does not and for those frequent spectacular rushes Wagner puts on display, he’s this generation’s Trevor Lewis – fastest skater on the team with hands that never seem to catch up. If the trades along the forward wall come as I suspect (including Kovalchuk if played right), Wagner should have the final 25 games of the season to prove he can still be an offensive contributor.

The next two weeks are pivotal if Los Angeles has plans to improve on its 71-point 2018-19 season. They have a friendly home schedule (5 of 7 in DTLA) and the furthest they travel is to Arizona Monday to face the Coyotes. From there, it’s a brutal December, 9 of 11 on the road prior to Christmas week; so solid play through Turkey Time is needed for their confidence, if not their small post-season hopes.