March
10, 2008
The Selanne Effect
By Darryl Dobbs, TheFourthPeriod.com
Veteran sniper Teemu Selanne has
been back for 14 games now and has already had a five-point
game. His impact – for better or for worse to fantasy junkies
– has far-reaching effects.
First, let’s look at the team itself. The Anaheim Ducks are
11-3-0 with Selanne in the lineup this season. They averaged
2.45 goals per game prior to his arrival and 2.57 since his he
joined them.
Primarily, his linemate on the opposite wing is Chris Kunitz.
At center, his usual partner Andy McDonald now calls St.Louis
his home, so there have been several pivots who have tried
their hand.
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Of the three centermen, it was
Ryan Carter who was having the most luck. The 24-year-old
former college star had four goals and five points in seven
games before breaking his wrist. If Selanne comes back for
another season (earlier than he did this year, we hope),
Carter makes an excellent 65-point dark horse.
Veteran Doug Weight was next in line, but he has had his own
injury problems (shoulder) and has managed just two points in
six games with Teemu on hand. Another former college star,
25-year-old Andrew Ebbett, has spelled Weight on that line
playing all three of his games this season with the Finnish
Flash. He has been held off the scoresheet.
So aside from Carter, the team cannot find a good fit for
Selanne up the middle. By the end of Thursday’s game, in which
the Ducks were shut out for the second straight time, the move
was made to bring budding superstar Ryan Getzlaf to Selanne’s
line. Since Getzlaf’s regular linemate Corey Perry is out for
the next six weeks with a severed tendon, the decision to
change the lines up was pretty much forced.
So now the top line looks like this: Getzlaf with Selanne and
Kunitz. That means that Todd Bertuzzi is out in the cold,
stuck with the struggling Weight and what will likely be the
recently recalled Bobby Ryan. Bertuzzi has just five points in
14 games with his new teammate.
Heading into Sunday, the team will play 12 more games – seven
at home and five on the road. You are going to see a lot of
top-heavy scoring with the majority of points going to the big
line. This will be more spread out by the end of the first
round of the playoffs with the return of Carter and Perry, but
as far as roto-leaguers care – it’s the 12 games that matter.
Everyone on that top line will get 12 to 15 points, while it
would surprise me if any of Ryan, Bertuzzi or Weight manage
more than five or six.
Looking at the defensemen, Selanne’s return has had virtually
no impact. Scott Niedermayer had a point for every two games
played prior to his arrival and a point every two games since.
Mathieu Schneider’s numbers have also been nearly identical,
and Chris Pronger’s numbers have actually declined slightly –
probably due to playing with a full face-shield to protect his
healing jaw.
Obviously, from a team standpoint, there is no question
Selanne puts them over the top. From a fantasy standpoint,
unless you’re a Kunitz owner, his arrival has not been a good
thing…
Meanwhile...
...Vancouver’s feisty winger Alexandre Burrows has 12
points in his last 17 games and also has 75 penalty minutes
and is a plus-9 in that span. He is a full-time member of the
same club that Sean Avery and Daniel Carcillo are in. Next
year he is a 40/200 candidate.
...Joe Corvo has 11 points in 12 games for Carolina. Early
call: Top 10 in points for a defenseman next season.
...Philly rearguard Braydon Coburn has eight points in 11
games since returning from his pain in the ass. Er…his torn
buttocks muscle.
For more
fantasy tips, visit www.dobberhockey.com
Mar. 03, 2008 -
Defensemen - Down the Stretch
Feb. 25, 2008 -
Trade Deadline - The Fantasy Lowdown Pt. 2 of 2
Feb. 18, 2008 -
Trade Deadline - The Fantasy Lowdown Pt. 1 of 2
Feb. 11, 2008 -
The Cavalry is Coming... But Do the Avs Need Them?
Feb. 04, 2008 -
Plekanec's Rolling Along
Jan. 28, 2008 -
At the All-Star Break...
Jan. 07, 2008 -
Leafs in World of Hurt
Dec. 17, 2007 -
Flashes of Promise
Dec. 10, 2007 -
Narrowing the Gap
Dec. 03, 2007 -
Passing the Torch
Nov. 26, 2007 -
Shifting Gears |
Nov. 19, 2007 -
Predators Back on Track
Nov. 12, 2007 -
Stepping Back
Oct. 29, 2007 -
The New Thrashers
Oct. 15, 2007 -
Two Promising Surprises
Oct. 08, 2007 -
New Islanders – In a Word:
Dominating
Sept. 24, 2007 -
The Future of Oil Country |
Dobber's
Fantasy Tips exclusively appear Monday's at
TheFourthPeriod.com.
Comments/Concerns/Criticisms/Compliments: rotohockey@rogers.com
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