February
18, 2008
Trade Deadline - The
Fantasy Lowdown
Pt. 1 of 2
By Darryl Dobbs, TheFourthPeriod.com
The trade deadline is February
26 and DobberHockey will have the instant fantasy breakdown of
all moves that go down. Who does it impact? What will be the
impact?
In part one of two, we'll take a look at some of the Eastern
Conference players who are on the block and why a trade will
help or hurt them fantasy-wise.
Sometimes, a player needs a change of scenery to get things
rolling again. Here are ten situations worth watching in the
Eastern Conference. There may be some ‘buying low’
opportunities here: |
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The Johan Hedberg situation:
The veteran is a solid backup and his contract is up this
summer. Underneath all the Marian Hossa hype is the fact that
Hedberg could be moved as well. If Atlanta fades from the
playoff story, look for a move here. This means a big
promotion for Ondrej Pavelec and an indication that the
youngster will be up full-time next season.
Buffalo – up or down: Talks have resumed with Brian
Campbell, but if a deal cannot be reached then expect him to
be dealt. Dimitri Kalinin is also a UFA this summer so he
could be on the move. However, the Sabres on the cusp and may
need to make a move to put them over the top. In all
likelihood, the team will use draft picks and prospects as
bait, but if a significant deal happens it is possible that
one of Dan Paille or Clarke MacArthur go the other way. Those
two very promising kids are restricted free agents this summer
and I have a feeling that the Sabres are a little tired of
those after what happened last summer with Thomas Vanek.
Olli Jokinen on the move? Wherever he goes, he will
remain an 85 or 90-point threat. Removing him from the Florida
lineup puts Stephen Weiss in as the No.1 center and may get
Shawn Matthias back up to the NHL. Pay attention to the ripple
effect here.
Habs need two deals, at least: Montreal has made no
secret that winger Michael Ryder is being shopped. He is
unrestricted this summer and is in the press box as much as
not these days. If he is traded, the team will acquire picks
or prospects. That said, the Habs are Cup contenders and so
not only will they be sellers with Ryder, but they will be
buyers as well. Among their prospects, Mikhail Grabovski is
set to become a restricted free agent in the summer. If he is
used to land an established star, expect him to become a
full-time NHLer immediately.
Habs may need yet another deal: I find what Montreal
has done with their goaltenders these past two months very
curious. I can’t help but think that Carey Price was sent to
the AHL to get some games in. Now that he is back up, he is
coming off two starts in which he gave up a combined one goal.
Has he shown the club that he is capable of being the No.1 guy
in the postseason? Ken Dryden, Patrick Roy…and even Steve
Penney come to mind when it comes to this team giving young
goalies a chance in pressure-packed situations. So, with the
team having three NHL-ready goaltenders and Cristobal Huet set
to become a UFA this summer – is something going to give here?
Make a play on Jaroslav Halak, because I think he will either
become the backup to Price, or he will be traded himself.
A clean slate for the Isles next year: With the
exception of Rick DiPietro and what the team owes Alexei
Yashin, the Islanders have the majority of their roster coming
up to free agency. Last season the team made a splash with the
Ryan Smyth acquisition. Will they do that again? If so, look
for Sean Bergenheim to be this year’s Robert Nilsson. He is
coming on free agency in the summer (restricted) and the team
already has him in their bad books because of his holdout last
year. Miroslav Satan is an unrestricted free agent and coach
Ted Nolan isn’t using him enough to warrant keeping him. He
could be on the move too.
Jaromir Jagr. 'Nuff said: Jagr needs 84 points this
season to extend his contract. Not likely to happen. That
means he is an unrestricted free agent in the summer. The team
is starting to take on a new mentality. Instead of “let’s try
and find Jagr a centerman”, the new mantra is “let’s try and
find Scott Gomez a winger”. Detroit is one of many teams
interested in Jags.
All those big, long contracts in Philadelphia: How can
the team afford to re-sign Jeff Carter and R.J. Umberger this
offseason when so much payroll is already spoken for? Mike
Richards, Daniel Briere, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen and
Simon Gagne are $33 million right there. Will the team trade
Carter for a rent-a-player? Or if they find a way, would this
mean another big contract will be moved? Stay tuned.
Too many quarterbacks in Pittsburgh: Ryan Whitney,
Sergei Gonchar and Kris Letang are all excellent quarterbacks
for the power play. Next year, when Letang grows into the role
a little more, three quarterbacks may be too many. So where
does Alex Goligoski fit in? He is ready to run a power play at
the NHL level. If the Pens make a move to shore up things up
on the wing, look for Goligoski to maybe go the other way. If
he does, he will immediately be called up to the bigs.
Prospal vs. Tortorella: Vaclav Prospal is an
unrestricted free agent this summer and is not getting along
well with his coach. You know this trade is gonna happen.
In the above, I tried to steer away from the situations that
are covered extensively all over the Internet. We know that
the Maple Leafs are going to make at least one big move and we
can be fairly certain that the Thrashers are moving Marian
Hossa. I’ll leave that analysis for when they actually happen.
In the DobberHockey feature A Roto-Look Ahead, we
analyze the schedule for each team over the coming seven days
and recommend which teams have the most optimal schedule for
fantasy purposes (i.e. most games and easiest schedule), as
well as which teams have a terrible week ahead for fantasy
pools (i.e. the least games and most difficult schedule).
Using that same formula, I studied the entire schedule from
February 27 to April 6 when the season ends.
The formula looks at quantity of games overall, quantity of
games at home, and the quality of the opponents.
Cheer, if your player is traded to one of these teams:
|
1 |
Bruins |
21.5 |
|
2 |
Lightning |
21.1 |
|
3 |
Sabres |
20.2 |
|
4 |
Canucks |
19.8 |
|
5 |
Thrashers |
19.7 |
|
6 |
Capitals |
19.6 |
|
7 |
Wild |
19.5 |
|
8 |
Sharks |
19.4 |
|
9 |
Panthers |
19.3 |
|
10 |
Flyers |
19.1 |
Cringe, if your player is traded
to one of these teams:
|
19 |
Islanders |
17.6 |
|
20 |
Rangers |
17.6 |
|
21 |
Blues |
17.6 |
|
22 |
Avalanche |
17.5 |
|
23 |
Blue
Jackets |
17.3 |
|
24 |
Flames |
17.3 |
|
25 |
Oilers |
16.9 |
|
26 |
Predators |
16.7 |
|
27 |
Kings |
16.4 |
|
28 |
Red
Wings |
16.2 |
|
29 |
Ducks |
15.3 |
|
30 |
Stars |
14.2 |
Boston plays 20 games, while
Dallas plays just 15. Boston plays a weak defensive team like
Toronto three times, whereas the Stars are stuck facing teams
such as Detroit, San Jose and Anaheim in their end-of-season
schedule.
For more
fantasy tips, visit www.dobberhockey.com
Feb. 11, 2008 -
The Cavalry is Coming... But Do the Avs Need Them?
Feb. 04, 2008 -
Plekanec's Rolling Along
Jan. 28, 2008 -
At the All-Star Break...
Jan. 07, 2008 -
Leafs in World of Hurt
Dec. 17, 2007 -
Flashes of Promise
Dec. 10, 2007 -
Narrowing the Gap
Dec. 03, 2007 -
Passing the Torch
Nov. 26, 2007 -
Shifting Gears |
Nov. 19, 2007 -
Predators Back on Track
Nov. 12, 2007 -
Stepping Back
Oct. 29, 2007 -
The New Thrashers
Oct. 15, 2007 -
Two Promising Surprises
Oct. 08, 2007 -
New Islanders – In a Word:
Dominating
Sept. 24, 2007 -
The Future of Oil Country |
Dobber's
Fantasy Tips exclusively appear Monday's at
TheFourthPeriod.com.
Comments/Concerns/Criticisms/Compliments: rotohockey@rogers.com
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