November 26,
2007
Shifting Gears
By Darryl Dobbs, TheFourthPeriod.com
The best keeper-league (and roto-league)
owners don't get that way by stubbornly sticking to their
opinions for too long, despite evidence that they were clearly
on the wrong track. No, the really good ones know when it's
time to change gears and roll with the trends. At the same
time, they need to balance what truly is a contradicting trend
with events that are just "hot streaks."
Pittsburgh is a great example.
Long term, it was clear that Ryan Whitney is the power-play
quarterback of the future and that he will accept the mantle
full-time from Sergei Gonchar when the latter leaves or
retires in a couple of seasons.
Rookie Kris Letang would then be
the understudy and in five or six years take Whitney's spot.
We are 23 games into the season
and Whitney has disappointed with just 10 points and is on a
41-point pace. While the 24-year-old will certainly pick up
his game and likely finish into the 50’s or even the low-60’s,
it is looking as if the youngster Letang may leapfrog him on
the power-play ladder. In his last two games, the 20-year-old
has garnered more power-play time than Whitney and has a pair
of power-play points. The Penguins are experiencing a
resurgence, so perhaps this trend will continue. That means
Whitney has been bumped to the second unit.
Keeper-league owners need to be prepared for the possibility
that Letang will accept the mantle from Gonchar as opposed to
Whitney. It’s early yet, but the situation bears watching and
owners need to be ready to shift gears on their philosophy.
The secondary scoring in Pittsburgh has been found once again
– and Mark Recchi has nothing to do with it. Ryan Malone and
Colby Armstrong have been playing on Sidney Crosby’s line and
the results of been successful. Poolies need to adjust to the
fact that Mark Recchi, a frequent healthy scratch of late, is
no longer a big part of the picture. In fact, he will be
hard-pressed to hit the 40-point mark this season. An injury
to a top winger is needed for Recchi to get another chance.
Meanwhile, Malone, who played some pretty weak hockey for the
first 15 games, and Armstrong, who was even worse, have turned
their games around. This is more of a roto-league philosophy
change, but poolies need to quickly get on board with this.
Armstrong has played excellent hockey when lined up with Sid
the Kid, picking up 37 points in 38 games on that line to
finish the 2005-06 season. He continued to look good last
season, but hit a lot of posts and missed a lot of
opportunities despite the hustle. This lack of production
caused him to be removed from the line and it took him a full
year to get back there. Now that he’s there, he has three
points in two games and from this writer’s standpoint things
look very good for similar production to continue.
With a 34-point season last year and just four points in 17
games this year, it will be hard for poolies to look at
Armstrong as a promising fantasy contributor. It goes against
everything that their staunch opinion stands for. It may be
time to shift gears…
Meanwhile...
...With 21 points in 23 games as an Islander last season,
defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron looked like a potential fantasy
steal at the draft table this past summer. Coach Ted Nolan
loved his booming shot, and all he did was produce. Enter
Bryan Berard. Suddenly, Nolan has a new pet and Bergeron finds
himself a frequent healthy scratch. However, Berard is now
pointless in his last six games and is a minus-3. If this
keeps up, Bergeron could get back in the good books.
...Carolina's Cory Stillman has 29 points in just 21 games
to lead all Hurricanes in scoring. He has been logging more
ice time than any other forward lately too.
...Jamie Langenbrunner has eight points in six games since
his return, including six in the last three. His return hasn’t
hurt anyone on the roster – Zach Parise, Travis Zajac and
Dainius Zubrus are both producing at the same pace that they
were before his return, while Brian Gionta has actually
increased his production.
...Tom Poti and Nicklas Backstrom are the biggest
beneficiaries of the Washington coaching change so far. Poti
has three points in the two games, while the rookie Backstrom
has five.
...Phoenix forward Radim Vrbata is a very streaky player.
He has been held off the scoresheet 12 times this season –
four games in a row in October and six games in a row in
November. He has five points in his last two games so get him
while he’s hot. However, as soon as he goes pointless it's
time to dump him.
...Nashville winger Martin Erat has 15 points in his last
11 contests.
