October 23, 2006
The Magical 10th Game
By Darryl Dobbs, TheFourthPeriod.com
Fantasy owners should be
cognizant of a team's 10th game of the season. NHL General
Managers certainly are.
According to the NHL CBA, a
rookie who plays in his 10th game will be considered to have
played an entire season. That is, if they signed a typical
three-year entry-level deal, they will have officially played
their first year. It also affects a player in terms of his
future arbitration year, unrestricted free agency, etc.
Needless to say, a rookie would have to play a pretty major
role with his team if he plans to stick around beyond game
number nine.
While the likes of Evgeni Malkin, Dustin Penner, Matt Carle,
and Anze Kopitar are locks to remain with the big club, the
rest of the 2006-07 rookie crew are by no means locks. Below
are some players of fantasy interest, and where they stand.
Paul Stastny, Colorado. Stastny is getting more ice
time than fellow rookie Wojtek Wolski, and is being used in
all special team situations. The chances are quite good that
he will remain with the squad and post 40+ numbers this
season. His long-term upside is 75 points. Chance of sticking:
90%.
Wojtek Wolski, Colorado. He plays a heck of game one
night, and is invisible the next, but he does have three
goals. He was sent back to junior after the ninth game last
season, but do not expect that to happen again. Chance of
sticking: 95%.
Lasse Kukkonen, Chicago. The 25-year-old Finn was a
surprise in training camp, doing everything this fall that
Brent Seabrook did last fall. He has six points in eight
games, and will remain with the team and finish in the
high-thirties. Chance of sticking: 100%.
Jordan Staal, Pittsburgh. A week ago, I would have
chiseled in stone Staal's chances of making the team at about
10%. His fine play on the penalty kill, and the fact that he
is getting 12 minutes of ice time per game, tells me the Pens
will keep him. All three of his goals are shorthanded markers
– one of which was a penalty shot. Chance of sticking: 75%.
Phil Kessel, Boston. The 18-year-old has three points
in seven games, but is seeing quite a lot of ice time for a
rookie. His minus-2, combined with a six percent shooting
percentage could see him spend a year in the AHL. It really is
coach Dave Lewis' call. Chance of sticking: 50%.
Patrick O'Sullivan, Los Angeles. He has already been a
healthy scratch, but on the other hand he has shown flashes of
brilliance. Is this his year? If not, he is a Calder favorite
for next season. Chance of sticking: 40%.
Gilbert Brule, Columbus. Last week I would have stated
unequivocally - 100 percent chance he is sent down. Now? Not
so fast. Coach Gerard Gallant placed him on the top line on
Saturday, and has now given him quality ice time for two
games, and he is taking advantage. Chances of sticking: 40%.
Travis Zajac, New Jersey. The Devils signed him out of
college early for a reason, and Zajac has not looked out of
place – playing nearly 14 minutes per game. The Devils are
still in salary-cap peril, and Zajac's relatively cheap price
will keep him in the lineup. Expect about 30 points this
season. Chances of sticking: 99%.
Ladislav Smid, Edmonton. The Oilers rearguard, acquired
in the off-season as part of the Chris Pronger package, has
been solid enough in his own end to warrant a full season in
the NHL. Currently the No.5 defenseman on the squad, Smid will
climb up the ladder a couple of notches each season until he
is their main man. Chances of sticking: 90%.
Nigel Dawes, NY Rangers. A surprise to make the team,
Dawes earned his spot. That being said, seven minutes per game
is a waste of a good prospect's development. Chances of
sticking: 10%.
For more
fantasy tips, visit www.dobberhockey.com
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Mar. 27, 2006 - Bang For Your Buck
Mar. 20, 2006 - Deadline 2006 – Fantasy Fallout, Part 2
Mar. 13, 2006 - Deadline 2006 – Fantasy Fallout, Part 1
Mar. 06, 2006 - Trade Deadline Looms II
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