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September 19, 2005
Late Picks to Make or Break Your Pool Team
By Darryl Dobbs, TheFourthPeriod.com 

Call them "dark horses", "sleeper-picks", or "breakout candidates" – whatever term you prefer, if you successfully pick enough of them, you're in line for some money. 

These are the guys that win pools. Anyone can pick a "Hossa" or a "Thornton" in the first round, but what about the guy that grabbed Michael Ryder in one of the later rounds last season? Or Mike Ribeiro? Trent Hunter? 

If you're two final picks wind up getting you 60 or more points, and the rest of your team is healthy, the pool is yours. Here are my picks for each team (Anaheim through Dallas):

Joffrey LupulAnaheim Mighty Ducks: Joffrey Lupul, 22. Speedster put up solid numbers in the AHL last year, and with 34 points in his rookie NHL season he's under the radar. I've read predictions of 43, 47, and 53 points from various experts. I think the Ducks are weaker at center then you think, and my own prediction is 62 points.

Atlanta Thrashers: Ramzi Abid, 25. Power forward was on a good clip in 2002-03 with 10 goals in 30 games with Phoenix. He has not had a healthy season since 97/98 in the QMJHL, however he finally played 78 games last year in the AHL. I see 33 points from him this year, but a 50-point year is possible.

Brad BoyesBoston Bruins: Brad Boyes, 23. I like Boyes better than Andy Hilbert for this pick. Granted, the Bruins are deep at center, but that depth includes Alexei Zhamnov – a guy who has missed at least 12 games on four occasions in the past nine years due to injury. Boyes will get his shot at some point this year. I have him at 16 points, but if he gets that shot early he could hit 40 or even 50.

Buffalo Sabres: Derek Roy, 22. There are lots of dark horses on this squad, what with Tim Connolly coming back from his concussion and Tomas Vanek making the jump from a fine AHL season. I like Roy the best because he played 49 NHL games so he has already proven himself as an NHLer. I predict 38 points from him this year, and he could top 60 given the right situation.

Calgary Flames: Chuck Kobasew, 23. One-hundred percent guaranteed to make the team, and I also guarantee he'll be on the second line. Coming off a huge AHL season doesn't hurt either. After getting 17 points as an NHL rookie, I see him doubling that output this year. However, his potential for this season could be as high as 65 points. Long-term, he'll be a 70-point player.

Pavel BrendlCarolina Hurricanes: Pavol Brendl, 24. I almost went with Radim Vrbata here, but I really like Brendl's explosive offensive potential. This guy could be a late cut in camp, or he could go out and score 30 goals. This really is the Czech's last chance at the big time, and with Carolina's depth (or lack thereof), he's an intriguing dark horse. I have him for 37 points, with upside that could top 60 right now.

Chicago Blackhawks: Rene Bourque, 23. I like this sleeper pick because his numbers have done nothing but improve with each passing year. Four years of college hockey followed by a fantastic rookie campaign in the AHL have put this guy on Chicago's radar. The 'Hawks also have poor depth up front, and has performed well thus far in camp. I have him in the high 20's, but he's another one who could wind up with 55 or 60 this year.

John-Michael LilesColorado Avalanche: John-Michael Liles, 24. This defenseman will one day take over for Rob Blake as the powerplay quarterback. I rate him higher than most of the experts this year, simply because I don't see the acquisition of Patrice Brisebois having any impact on his ice-time. His numbers improved steadily in college hockey, and he posted 34 points as a rookie with the big club. I think he'll get 49 points this year, with an upside of 55 with the new-look NHL.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Jaroslav Balastik, 25. He has no NHL history and therefore he intrigues me. His domination of the Czech leagues draw comparisons to Jiri Dopita. If that's the case, Balastik will garner 27 points this year and six next year before fading off into the Czech league sunset. However, I think the situation for Balastik is a little different, given that Dopita was 33 when he came over. I'm very bold with my predictions, so I have him for 48 points on the second line in Columbus. His upside is 65 and his downside is zero.

Dallas Stars: Jussi Jokinen, 22. Dallas is another team with a handful of sleepers – namely Martin Skoula (I really like his potential on the blueline), Loui Eriksson and Jaroslav Svoboda. I chose Jokinen because he is probably the most consistent of the above group, and getting off to great start in exhibition play doesn't hurt either. I predict 27 points with a possibility of 50.

This week's "stay away from" list: Milan Kraft and Evgeny Malkin of Pittsburgh will be playing this year in Europe. Alexei Morozov did not report to the Pens' camp either, and will not play in the NHL if his contract demands are not met... Don't overrate Colorado's Marek Svatos. He apparently has a bit of an attitude problem, and I don't see him even cracking the lineup. I mention this because I've noticed a few articles that have him as a solid dark horse. That's true, he is, but don't say I didn't warn you... Let someone else take a chance on Teemu Selanne. He scares me.

Dobber's Fantasy Tips exclusively appear Monday's at TheFourthPeriod.com.
Comments/Concerns/Criticisms/Compliments: rotohockey@rogers.com

 

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