[CHICAGO, IL] -- And no, I'm not
apologizing to Miley Cyrus for ripping the title for my blog from her
tween-pop hit. At least, not until she apologizes to me for her
assault on pop culture, and for roping my daughters into the campaign.
Anyway, it's November now. Most NHL teams have hit, or are about to
hit, the 1/8th pole. Not enough time to see any definitive arcs for
the season, but that's enough time to start pulling on some threads.
And when I do that, well, things tend to unravel like last year's L.L.
Bean catalog sweater (and no, I'm still not over it. That's the last
time I purchase anything in which the color is described as
"Cranberry/Lake").
I've seen ten teams in person, and another eight or so on TV.
Hopefully there are more to come. My next road trip is out west. And I
just saw some swimming trunks in "kelp" that match my skintone.
Perfect for the pool in Scottsdale.
Let's get these notes off my scratch
pad and out into the ether:
ITEM ONE -- Four teams are lapping the field.
Last year, only the Red Wings won 50 games. This year, they could do
it again, and the Sharks, Rangers and Canadiens all could join them.
These teams are clearly the established elite, though none of them are
perfect. But they could all get to the Hawaii 5-0 because the bottom
of the league is significantly weaker than it has been. Last year
every team won more than thirty games. This year, the Islanders and
Thrashers could easily fall short of 30, with the sinking Sens
approaching. The Kings probably have enough in their corps of fresh
legs to make it into the mid-30's.
ITEM TWO -- I'm not buying the speculative stocks.
A couple of teams exploded out of the gate, but I'm casting a wary eye
on St. Louis, Buffalo and Calgary. They're all like the
girl-who-hangs-with-the-guys on your freshman floor in college -- she
looks good now, but by senior year she's going to have back end
issues. That's how it is with these teams -- they've got pluck and
they're fun to hang out with now. But by late in the campaign you
won't get past the issues in back and you're going to think you could
have done better. The Flames have one defenseman with more than 3
points. The Sabres aren't physical without Rivet. The Blues'
defensemen are slow. You know it's trouble when Andy Murray is trying
to sell you on a Roman Polak-Jay McKee pair, and by the way isn't this
about the time in his stay that players start finding other things to
do than listen to Andy Murray -- like following Zack and Cody out of
the Tipton and onto the boat (that's a Disney Channel joke for those
of you without kids).
ITEM THREE -- Time to say farewell to some old standbys.
The Stars, Ducks and Devils can't compete for the Stanley Cup, at
least not without major upgrades over the season. The Devils look like
a lot of guys who are hanging on for a last run, while at the same
time trying to coax their young talent from possibilities to
certainties - and losing Marty Brodeur for the next three months
definitely doesn't help. The Ducks will ultimately be undone by better
skating teams. The Stars' defenders are somewhere in between fast and
physical, and are susceptible to teams that are fast or physical. I'm
a big Dave Tippett fan, but I'm not enamored with his team at all.
That said, all three of these teams are capable of making the playoffs
and winning a round or two. The Stars especially have one of the best
lines in hockey in Ribiero, Eriksson and Morrow. Love that group. This
may be the year that Anaheim's Ryan Getzlaf joins the rest of the
league's elite power forwards.
ITEM FOUR -- What you should be thinking about the Lightning.
If you had this team as your deep sleeper, you probably over thought
things. Or perhaps you didn't think about them enough. That said, this
is a wildly entertaining team for 2008-2009. They haven't scored a ton
of goals yet, but I think they will. They've played outstanding
defense, but I think eventually they won't. Mike Smith can't keep up a
04% save percentage all season. This team will fall out of the serious
playoff hunt by early March, but if I'm a team fighting for my playoff
life, I wouldn't want to play them in early March. But I'm not sure
how well they've positioned themselves for the future. They have a
shocking 7 players who are 33 or older, two of whom are north of 40.
How they transition from those players to a younger core will be an
interesting scenario to follow around the trade deadline.
ITEM FIVE -- Don't go to sleep yet on the pre-season risers.
Phoenix, Columbus, Edmonton and Chicago haven't stormed out of the
gate, but I still like all these teams a lot. The Blackhawks endured a
coaching change and have failed to get a point in just one of their
seven games since. And eleven games in, the Hawks are still looking
for their first goal from Jonathan Toews. He'll get one, and then bag
six in a week. The Oilers have a couple of struggling sophomores, but
Sam Gagner isn't going to goalless all season. The Jackets need a
healthy Pascal LeClaire in goal, but they have a nice mix of young
talent and steady veterans. Their scoring is more balanced than I
initially thought going into the season. And the acquisition of
Kristian Huselius is one of the most underrated free agent signings of
the off-season. And I can't quite figure out why the Coyotes haven't
clicked. They faded like October magnolias after they held a lead when
I saw them in person. It makes me wonder -- and I have no inside
insight here -- that something is rotting from the interior. I want to
check in with them in ten games and see if they haven't resolved
themselves.
ITEM SIX -- The Last Weekend in January. In Montreal.
This is the NHL's version of the NBA All-Star game in Vegas, but with
parkas. I'm not joking about this. Montreal is Canada's party city,
right down to the risqué bars and the other "items" for sale. It's the
100th anniversary of Les Habitants, so the celebration will be on
steroids. The players may not entirely partake, but the people who
want to be around players will certainly partake, and they will
partake hard. I predict fewer shootings and more foreign language
social faux pas. I'm going, and I'm bringing two sets of ID and three
credit cards.
ITEM SEVEN -- THE MVP
Pre-season, I picked Alex Ovechkin. He's 199th in the league in
scoring right now. One hundred and freakin' ninety ninth! Domenic
Moore has more points. Andrej Sekera has more points. Travis Moen has
as many points. Now, I did see both of Ovi's goals and they were
wondrous. He'll be top 10 by season's end. But the guy who impressed
me most in person was Henrik Lundqvist. Recently, we've seen teams
fade after searing-hot starts like the Sens in '07 and the Sabres in
'06, but in Lundqvist the Rangers have a different kind of goalie then
either of those teams. They'll survive, and Sir Henrik shall take them
there.
ITEM EIGHT -- THE CONN SMYTHE WINNER
As I said at the top, I see four elite teams, and my two pre-season
picks are still among them. So I'll stick with Sharks over Habs, and
Evgeni Nabokov as the playoff MVP and the backbone of that Stanley Cup
winning team. You have to like the Sharks' tactic here. For years
they've had a team that could skate with most anyone, and play
physical with most anyone, but Ron Wilson checked that with a
conservative style that forced them to play nearly perfect playoff
games. And it failed. New Coach Todd McLellan has sailed in from
Detroit, bringing with him the Wings' puck-moving style. He's opened
up the throttle and so far it's working. Can that last all season?
Will it work against the Wings in a head-to-head series, if it comes
to that? These are questions we'll revisit later in the season.
Josh
Mora,
a Columnist with TheFourthPeriod.com, is an Anchor and
Blackhawks Reporter with Comcast Sportsnet Chicago.
