October 8, 2008 Blackhawks ready for exciting
season TFP Columnist Josh Mora believes the Chicago
Blackhawks can finish anywhere from 1st to 12th in the Western
Conference.
[Chicago, IL] -- So here we are. It's
the eve of another season, yet an eve unlike any we've seen in Chicago
in at least 10 years. It is not worth re-hashing what has happened in
the year just past that have brought the Blackhawks to this point. It
simply suffices to say that the dizzying speed at which this franchise
has ramped up from irrelevant to intriguing to impressive may be
unlike anything we have ever seen in sport, much less in the NHL. And
there is danger in the expectations that follow. Danger that the
Blackhawks, as players, will become distracted by the outside
commitments to which they must attend. Danger that the team, both as
individuals and as a collective, will not continue to improve at the
rate at which they did a year ago. Danger that the organization does
not respond to advancing levels of success the way it did when
building success out of nothing.
The Blackhawks are the Megan Fox of the NHL. You see the "New IT
Girl" on the cover of every relevant October magazine at the W.H.
Smith's in the airport. But while she looks beautiful and her eyes
suggest she could seduce an Inuit into buying ice, she doesn't have a
track record of being a bankable star. I mean, "Transformers?"
"Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen?" (which I've actually seen,
btw. I have daughters).
What's the Blackhawks' resume? A
handful of guys who won an NCAA championship? A few high draft picks
and some impressive free agent signings? Rallying late in the season
to miss the playoffs by 3 points? Well, close only counts in romance
and nuclear war, and nothing about a season past promises anything
about the year that follows.
As you'll see at the end of this entry, I've picked the Blackhawks to
finish 5th in the West. Truth is, they could finish anywhere from 1st
to 12th. First, if everything falls perfectly and the Red Wings cruise
through the season trying to stay healthy the way Pacino has coasted
through every movie since Heat -- good enough to get the job done.
Twelfth, if they get riddled by injuries and the other teams with some
promise -- Edmonton, Phoenix, Columbus -- make the kind of quantum
leaps that the Blackhaws did a year ago. But there are some
bellweather signs to watch for.
The Hawks will fail if:
1. Cristobal Huet provides less consistent goaltending as the number
one goaltender than Nikolai Khabibulin. Assuming that the Hawks
eventually move Nikolai Khabibulin (at the time of this writing he was
on the Hawks' initial roster), they will have a less experienced
backup goaltender than they did a year ago in Patrick Lalime. Huet
will have probably play 60-plus games. He has not looked especially
sharp in the pre-season.
2. They struggle at center. For all the Blackhawks' young talent, they
are raw down the middle where it may matter most. This was a team that
won a lot of key faceoffs a year ago and controlled games because of
it. But they purged Robert Lang as a salary cap casualty. Yanic
Perrault, whose one contribution a year ago fell within this category,
is long gone. Kevyn Adams' valiant effort to return from a knee injury
came up shy of the season-opening roster. As of now, Patrick Sharp is
slated to play center. In 3-plus seasons playing mostly center, Sharp
scored a combined 39 goals. Last year, playing mostly on the wing,
Sharp nearly equaled that, scoring 36. So to cover themselves, the
Hawks have pulled Sharp away from where he is most comfortable. This
is a clear weakness for the Hawks as they enter the season.
3. Denis Savard can't take the next step as head coach. For his first
two seasons, Savard has been exactly the right man for the job. He has
re-established pride in the Blackhawks' organization. He has, most of
the time, known when to push his young players and when to back off.
He has known which players have the internal fortitude which makes
them willing to "Commit to the Indian", and he has known which have
lacked the drive to succeed and needed to move on. But Savard has his
doubters. Several league insiders have challenged his X-and-O
construction. And the Hawks have added Joel Quenneville to the
organization as a scout. It's the playoff-or-bust in Chicago (in truth
it's probably win-a-round-in-the-playoffs-or-bust). Savard will need
to be more than a cheerleader if the Hawks are to contend for the
Stanley Cup.
The Hawks will succeed because:
1. Brian Campbell is the perfect fit as a free agent. Look, I know the
Buffalo faithful feel that Campbell is overrated. I read the message
boards on Sabresfans.com. I know they practically choked on the size
of Campbell's contract. But he is the key piece the Hawks did not have
to run their power play a year ago, when they had the puck-handlers to
move the puck and the snipers to score. The Hawks finished in the top
10 in goals a year ago, but in the middle of the pack on the power
play. Also, because Campbell plays so many minutes, he will absorb
minutes that were played a year ago by the Hawks' 5th, 6th and 7th
defensemen. The Hawks weakness a year ago, defensive depth, has now
become a strength. There was simply not a better match this off-season
between a team with a need, and a top-tier free agent who could
provide that need.
2. Patrick Sharp, Dustin Byfuglien and the other young pups are for
real. This team is so loaded with young talent that the Hawks sent
several prospects who are ready now back to their respective teams in
juniors, the minors and Russia. Sharp and Byfuglien broke through last
year. In limited application, Dave Bolland, Jack Skille and Niklas
Hjarmalsson all showed more promise than flaws, and showed that
promise with enough consistency to be competent. The next step is for
that competence to grow into excellence. And this does not include the
young players who are already stars -- Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Toews.
There is no team in hockey which has as many young players on the cusp
of establishing themselves as the Blackhawks do.
3. They have home ice advantage. For a long time, Chicago was a
comfortable place for opposing teams to play. They could come into
town between stops in Nashville and Detrpit, check into the Sutton
Place Hotel, get a great meal at Carmine's or Gibson's, flirt with the
hotties at Tavern on Rush, and roll to a victory in front of a sparse
crowd without expending much effort. Not anymore. The United Center is
rocking. Season tickets are up more than 300% from two years ago. Once
upon an era ago, the hostile atmosphere of the Old Stadium alone
intimidated teams off their game. That happened in the second half of
last season, and it should happen again.
Here's how I predict the season to
play out. I guarantee 100% this will NOT be the final order of the
standings come early April:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Detroit (Central Div. Winner)
2. San Jose (Pacific Div. Winner)
3. Edmonton (Northwest Div. Winner)
4. Dallas
5. Chicago
6. Anaheim
7. Phoenix
8. Calgary
---
9. Minnesota
10. Columbus
11. Vancouver
12. Nashville
13. Colorado
14. St. Louis
15. Los Angeles
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Montreal (Northeast Div. Winner)
2. Washington (Southeast Div. Winner)
3. NY Rangers (Atlantic Division Winner)
4. Pittsburgh
5. Philadelphia
6. Buffalo
7. New Jersey
8. Carolina
---
9. Tampa Bay
10. Boston
11.Ottawa
12.Florida
13.Atlanta
14. NY Islanders
15. Toronto
Conf. Finals:
San Jose over Detroit
Montreal over Washington
Stanley Cup Winner:
San Jose over Montreal
Josh
Mora,
a Columnist with TheFourthPeriod.com, is an Anchor and
Blackhawks Reporter with Comcast Sportsnet Chicago.
