[NEW YORK, NY] -- I know that the NHL's
free agency period is still a full three months away from kicking off,
but in looking ahead just a bit, is there a more intriguing upcoming
unrestricted free agent than Minnesota's Marian Gaborik?
Sure, Florida's Jay Bouwmeester and Detroit's Marian Hossa, among
others, will grab many of the free agent headlines, but no UFA has the
incredible upside Gaborik provides, while also being surrounded by
more red flags signaling "buyer beware."
It is that weighing of good and bad
before plunking down millions to obtain his services which makes
Gaborik such an intriguing free agent this summer.
There is no denying that Gaborik's offensive game, puckhandling
skills, and skating abilities are all at an elite world-class level.
He has recorded 30 or more goals five times in eight NHL seasons, and
notched a career-high 42 just last season. And at only 27 years of
age, he has already produced 216 goals and 429 points in 499 career
games with a Wild team that has never been compared with the 1980's
vintage Edmonton Oilers as far as offensive production goes.
Even in a down economy, and with the salary cap limiting many teams'
options, it would be easy to see NHL clubs opening up their checkbooks
to the tune of $7 million or so a season as part of a multi-year deal
in order to lure Gaborik to a new locale.
Of course, that would be under normal circumstances. And Gaborik's
situation is not one of the black and white variety.
The red flags I mentioned earlier are there with Gaborik because of
his nagging groin and hip-related injuries that have cost him
significant playing time in half of his eight campaigns with
Minnesota.
This season Gaborik had the chance to drive his value sky-high by
putting up big numbers in his walk year. Instead he has played a
career-low 14 games, so far, and missed three complete months after
opting for surgery on his hip to, hopefully, put his nagging injuries
to rest.
However, in eight games since returning to the lineup, Gaborik has
made a very positive impression. He has scored goals in six of those
eight contests, while posting more than a point per game (7-3-10).
Gaborik has been consistently good, and even threw in a dose of great
with a four-point outing against the Islanders two weeks ago.
I was able to see two of those games in person, and from my vantage
point it is clear that Gaborik has not quite found his explosive
skating stride just yet, something that will likely take some time
following surgery and such a long layoff. But the hands? Oh yeah,
Gaborik's still got 'em.
Clearly he is going to be scouted heavily by interested teams down the
stretch of the season. And it would be to Gaborik's advantage on many
levels if the Wild was able to reach the post-season and he could
continue to regain his all-around game and showcase himself for a
longer period of time. A successful post-season---such as the one in
2002-03 when he recorded 17 points in 18 matches for Minnesota---would
only raise Gaborik's value.
But those red flags are still going to be there, despite the
seemingly-successful surgery and despite how well he has played since
returning to action. For a player so young to be hampered by such a
chronic problem throughout his career is going to be a major concern
for any GM considering a four, five, or six-year deal.
One Eastern Conference scout recently said to me that he believes
Gaborik may only receive a one-year deal in the $4.5 million range
because he needs to prove himself completely healthy, and that one
more season in Minnesota is not out of the question.
I don't buy that, though, and especially now with how well Gaborik has
played since returning from the hip surgery. He is too young and too
skilled to be bypassed by league general managers, who, more often
than not, like to portray themselves as conservative, but often end up
being big risk-takers.
The "Buyer Beware" tag will remain with Gaborik until he has played a
full season or two injury-free. However that label likely will be in
place along with a multi-year contract that will feature a large
number at the front and many zeroes at the end.
Gaborik may not hit as big a jackpot come July as he would have coming
off a completely healthy campaign, but trust me, there will be quite a
pot of gold at the end of his rainbow.
Jim Cerny,
former play-by-play voice of the New York Islanders, is
a Columnist for TheFourthPeriod.com and the New York Correspondent for The
4th Period Magazine. He is also the beat writer for
NewYorkRangers.com, and hosts NHL Live on Sirius/XM Radio
and The NHL Network.
