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October 4, 2009
Luongo ready to represent West
in Cup Finals
[NEW YORK, NY] -- Armed with a new
long-term contract, and fully healthy after being limited to 54 games
a year ago, is this the year Roberto Luongo takes the Vancouver
Canucks on a long springtime playoff ride?
I think it is. But it's not going to be easy as the Western Conference
shapes up to be as tough as it ever has been in 2009-10.
Here's my look into the crystal ball, with all teams listed
alphabetically:
Playoff Locks (5): Calgary, Chicago, Detroit, San Jose, and Vancouver.
Ok, I know, these are the same five teams that finished Top Five in
the West a year ago. Really going out on a limb, eh Jim?! But let's
face it, they are going to be the best five once again. The popular
pick to be No. 1 is Chicago, and I think they will have a very strong
year, maybe even win the Central Division. But I do not think they
will advance to the Cup Finals. I think this could be Vancouver's year
to represent the West. But do not discount Detroit. The Red Wings have
proven year after year the ability to replace important parts with
talented newcomers. If they can once again overcome mediocre
goaltending, they'll be a force in the playoffs, though I wouldn't be
surprised to see them fall back a bit in the regular season. And watch
out for Calgary. They're going to be real good, with an awesome Top
Three on defense to compliment Miikka Kiprusoff in goal and a Jarome
Iginla-led offense. Plus, I love the addition of Brent Sutter as head
coach. As for the Sharks, all bets are off come April. We shall see...
Playoff Teams (3): Anaheim, Los Angeles, and St. Louis
I really like the Ducks this year, though I still think they need to
figure out the goaltending situation. It looks great to have two No.
1s, but in reality it can't continue to work long term, especially if
high-priced JS Giguere is the one on the bench. Adding Joffrey Lupul,
Luca Sbisa, and, especially, Saku Koivu were great moves for the
Ducks. LA is my surprise team here. Goaltending is still a big
question mark in La-La Land, but the additions of solid character guys
like Ryan Smyth and Rob Scuderi will help push this very talented
young squad into a playoff spot. I think it will be a battle for the
8th seed, but the Blues will have just enough to snag it. A healthy
Paul Kariya and Erik Johnson will give the Blues the boost they need.
Slipping Back (3): Columbus, Minnesota, and Nashville
I do like the Blue Jackets, especially their good young nucleus. Plus
they will add a potential star in Nikita Filatov this year. But so
much of their success in last year's playoff campaign was predicated
on Steve Mason being great in goal. I don't see a sophomore slump from
Mason, but I also don't think he'll be as good. The Blue Jackets will
just miss the cut in the West. Nashville just doesn't score enough in
my book, though I am intrigued to see what rookie center Colin Wilson
will add to the Preds offense this year. Pekka Rinne, like Mason might
slip a bit this year, and, if so, the Preds will fall further back
than the 10th place they finished a year ago. Minnesota will have a
totally different look without Jacques Lemaire as head coach any more.
Expect a more up-tempo exciting brand of hockey. Just don't expect
more victories.
No Way Jose (4): Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas, and Phoenix
The Oilers are the best of this bunch, with Nikolai Khabibulin now on
the scene to solidify the goaltending. Edmonton could make a run at a
playoff spot, but in the end, they are just not good enough, and did
not add any vital parts to the mix during the off-season, despite the
near-deal for Dany Heatley. Dallas will battle Colorado for last place
in the conference. And I think the Coyotes will play well for part of
the year, riding some strong play from their talented core of
youngsters. But in the end, the ownership mess, bankruptcy, and
questions of where the team may play in 2010-11 will bog this team
down and push it out of the mix by time the Olympics roll around.
Predicted to Represent the West in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals:
Vancouver Canucks
This is a gut call, and so much can take place to sway my decision in
another direction over the coming months, but I like Vancouver in the
playoffs. But I just have this nagging feeling that the Red Wings will
prove me wrong yet again...or that the Ducks will make a run...or the
Flames, like them a lot, too...OK, like I said, Vancouver in the
Finals.
In the East….
Goaltender Ray Emery just might be the wildest of wild cards heading
into the 2009-10 NHL season, what with his erratic background which
led to a one-year stint playing in Russia last season.
But a focused on-point Emery just might be talented enough to backstop
a deep Philadelphia Flyers team past Eastern Conference favorites like
Washington, Boston, and the defending champs in Pittsburgh, this year.
So here's a look at how I see the East breaking down this season (with
all teams listed in alphabetical order):
Playoff Locks (4): Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington.
These four teams are head and shoulders better than the remainder of
the competition in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins are the
defending Stanley Cup champions, and have played in two straight Cup
Finals against Detroit. That level of experience just can't be bought,
especially with cornerstones Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and
Marc-Andre Fleury still so young. Pittsburgh will be a beast for years
to come, and still very well may end up an NHL dynasty. This year,
though, I think they will finish second in the tough Atlantic
Division, and get bumped off in the playoffs. The popular bet to win
the East, and the Cup, this year is Washington. The Caps will be
looking to build upon two straight playoff appearances led by a hungry
superstar in Alex Ovechkin and the immensely gifted offensive
defenseman Mike Green. Goaltending will be the question mark here. Can
Jose Theodore bounce back and reclaim the top spot? And if not, is
rookie Semyon Varlamov prepared to shoulder the load throughout the
regular season and the playoffs? It's a lot to ask, especially with
the Caps defense still a question mark. Boston features a stifling
defense anchored by Zdeno Chara and backstopped by Tim Thomas, with
talented rookie Tuukka Rask expected to make 20-25 starts between the
pipes, as well. The big question for the B's will be if they will
score enough come playoff time, especially with Phil Kessel now in
Toronto. The Flyers, quite possibly, are deeper---both up front and on
the blueline---than any of the three other Beasts of the East. The
play of rookie Claude Giroux, the ability for Emery to play well and
keep his composure, and the health of oft-injured Danny Briere and
Simon Gagne are vital for Philly this year. I love captain Mike
Richards---even coming off double shoulder surgery. I love the
addition of Chris Pronger---who will make defense partner Kimmo
Timonen an absolute stud this year. And Scottie Hartnell is one of my
favorite heart-and-soul players in the entire league. This team is
going to be mighty good this year.
Playoff Teams (4): Carolina, Montreal, NY Rangers, New Jersey
The Canadiens and Rangers both completely made-over their respective
teams this past off-season, even helping one another in that respect
with the Scott Gomez-for-Chris Higgins trade. It will certainly take
time for both clubs to jell, but I believe that both are good enough
to remain playoff teams. Gomez and Brian Gionta are seeking
bounce-back seasons in Montreal, and so, too, is young goaltender
Carey Price. How he handles the off-ice pressures in Montreal will be
nearly as important as how he stops the puck this season. The Rangers
will be a more exciting team to watch this year, with John Tortorella
fully implementing his favored up-tempo puck-control style of play,
and with the additions of proven goal scorers like Marian Gaborik,
Ales Kotalik, Vinny Prospal, and Higgins. Rookie defenseman Matt
Gilroy will be fun to watch rushing and distributing the puck from the
back end on Broadway, as well. But as has been the case for five years
now, the Rangers fortunes will rest squarely on the play of goalie
Henrik Lundqvist. There were very few changes made in Carolina during
the off-season, the biggest news being goalie Cam Ward's multi-year
contract extension. The 'Canes are a solid team, but they might have
to struggle just a bit to finish in the Top Eight. Speaking of
struggling, the Devils will do exactly that all year. Despite a really
incredible run in the regular season a year ago---especially
considering that Martin Brodeur missed most of the year due to
injury---New Jersey is a team heading south. With Patrick Elias
missing from the lineup to start the season, life will be even more
challenging for the reigning Atlantic Division champs. I say 8th
place, and just barely for the Devils.
Not Quite in the Playoffs (4): Buffalo, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
I think all four of these teams will contend for a playoff spot, and
just miss out in the final week or two of the regular season. My
surprise team is Tampa Bay, and if I had more guts, I would have
slotted them into a playoff spot. The Lightning made some solid moves
over the summer, not the least of which were signing free agent
Mattias Ohlund and drafting stud Viktor Hedman to play on the blueline
this year. Don't forget that this club still has Vinny Lecavalier---free
from trade rumors this season---and Martin St. Louis leading the
offense. And the real key to this team's rise in the standings will be
Steven Stamkos, the first overall pick from a year ago who erased a
slow start with a very impressive second half to his rookie campaign
last year and who is set to put up much bigger numbers in '09-'10. I
like Ottawa to really make a run, as well. Free from Dany Heatley and
his battle with coach Cory Clouston, the Sens still boast a very
talented group of forwards. The addition of Pascal Leclaire in goal
will provide a huge boost, too. Though I think the world of Lindy Ruff
as a head coach, I just can't see his Sabres making the playoffs. They
just are not good enough or deep enough. And though Toronto grabbed
quite a few headlines during the off-season and during training camp,
the bottom line is the Leafs will be much tougher to play against this
year, but they are still not a playoff team. Games between the Maple
Leafs and Flyers, pitting the two most physical clubs in the NHL this
season, will be must-see throwback-type events.
No Way Jose (3): Atlanta, Florida, New York Islanders
Many experts have the Panthers pegged as a playoff team. I do not see
it. The Panthers made a spirited run into 9th place a year ago, but I
see this team finding its own water level and slipping back in the
pack this year. There's not enough depth up front, and losing Jay
Bouwmeester on the back end really hurts. The Islanders---the NHL's
worst club last season---will be more competitive and more fun to
watch this year. Adding No. 1 overall pick John Tavares to a young mix
that includes Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo, Blake Comeau, and the
recently-acquired Rob Schremp makes for something worth watching on
the Island. And credit GM Garth Snow for picking up veteran goalies
Dwayne Roloson and Marty Biron so that a string of AHLers are not
tending goal (like the past two years) while Rick DiPietro rehabs yet
again from injury. There's a good chance Atlanta finishes behind the
Islanders this year. The Thrashers have loaded up on Russian
talent---perhaps to appease impending unrestricted free agent-to-be
Ilya Kovalchuk---but it will be a sinking ship in Atlanta. It will be
interesting to see where Kovalchuk ends up prior to the trade
deadline.
Predicted to Represent the East in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals:
Philadelphia Flyers
Like the West, this is not an easy call. But I feel the Flyers have so
much quality depth, and Emery is like catching lightning in a bottle
because this will be his last go of it in the NHL if he implodes. So
to the surprise of many, I see the Caps and Penguins on the outside
looking in come June.
Jim Cerny,
former play-by-play voice of the New York Islanders, is
a Columnist for TheFourthPeriod.com and the New York Correspondent for The
4th Period Magazine. He is also the beat writer for
NewYorkRangers.com, and hosts NHL Live on Sirius/XM Radio
and The NHL Network.
For a daily dose of Jim's take on the latest in the NHL,
check out his blog,
Rink Rap, and on
Twitter.
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