September 26, 2008 My kind of town TFP Columnist Dennis Bernstein offers his
surprise prediction on the 2008-09 Stanley Cup winner.
[Los Angeles, CA] -- As the 90th NHL
season sets to debut in Stockholm and Prague, it's time for the annual
rite of passage.
For the last decade, I've made my
choice for the NHL Stanley Cup champions on the cusp of the season and
I'm proud to season my record is perfect. I COULD lie to you and say
that I'm 10 for 10, but the reality is that my perfection stems from
the inability to select even one champion.
This season, I could be a chalk eater
(a bettor's term for picking favorites) and go with the short money
choice, the defending champion Detroit Red Wings. They've lost two
inconsequential cogs in the machine with the dual retirement of
Dominik Hasek and Dallas Drake. Hasek proved to be more a distraction
than asset last year and the Wings finally took off in the playoffs
when they benched the Dominator in favor of Chris Osgood. Drake, while
a great character guy in the locker room, wasn't a point player
throughout the championship run.
Even with the Wings getting the plum
of the free agent crop in Marian Hossa, who decided it's better to go
to the victors than stay with the vanquished (Cup runner up Pittsburgh
Penguins), the specter of a Stanley Cup hangover looms large with this
team.
Despite the return of Chris Chelios
to the team and his willingness to accept a lesser role in the
process, the weak link in this defending champ is still the backline.
Yeah, Nicky Lidstrom is the reigning Norris Winner and a first ballot
Hall of Famer, but he's now 38 years old. His running mate Brian
Rafalski is 35 years old, not retirement age for either of the top
defensive tandem but certainly bone creaking territory.
I will concede that the defending
champs have the deepest collection of talented forwards in the league,
but with a Stanley Cup in the back pocket of Pavel Datysuk, Henrik
Zetterberg and Valtteri Flippula, I can't envision the same hunger for
a repeat championship coming from this group of European players.
Even if the forward lines come with
the same vigor that they did when they breezed through the tournament,
the defense of the crown comes down to the performance of one player,
the aforementioned Osgood.
When we last left Ozzie, he was
making that save at the buzzer in Game 6 of the Finals that will be
emblazed in the memories of both Winged Wheel and Igloo fans alike.
For all the criticism lobbed at this netminder over the years, the
2007-08 season was Osgood's best year. He won the Jennings Trophy,
symbolic of having the lowest goals against, was an NHL All Star and
could have easily been named the Conn Smythe winner by virtue of his
14-4 record, 1.55 GAA and .930 save percentage.
Indeed, he did play in front of a
team that was clearly the best last season, but it's time to recognize
Osgood for what he really is, a potential Hall of Fame goaltender.
He enters this season with three
Stanley Cup rings, two Jennings Trophies and a two time All Star. He's
totaled 363 wins but more importantly is 168 games over .500 and has
never had a losing season in a 14 year NHL career. But like Lidstrom,
you have to wonder what will motivate Osgood at 35 years old, with
last season's performance securing his legacy in Red Wings' history.
So if the Wings don't repeat, which squad stands to wrest the crown
from their steely grasp? It won't be the Los Angeles Kings, but enough
of my prospective burden watching Dean Lombardi's job swing in the
wind this season.
I like the way the Pittsburgh
Penguins played last season, I even had them as the Cup winner. They
showcased both talent and toughness navigating the Eastern Conference
with ease, losing only two games before getting to the Finals. But
that run was just as much a function of the weakness of the East as it
was with the proficiency of the Pens.
Since we're not a fan of the
aforementioned Hossa, we'll discount the impact of his free agent
departure and we'll compliment GM Ray Shero for not overpaying to
retain Ryan Malone. Shero has replaced those two with comparable
talent in Ruslan Fedotenko and Miroslav Satan, and with repeat
performances from Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and a better season
from Jordan Staal; the Steeltowners stand a better chance to return to
the finals than the Red Wings do.
Pittsburgh's main rival, the Montreal
Canadiens were the first seed in the Eastern Conference, but when the
lights got bright youngster Corey Price melted between the pipes
allowing the Philadelphia Flyers to push through to the Conference
Finals. While the Flyers are a nice team and Mike Richards and Jeff
Carter grew up in the post season, they lack the required scoring
depth to be considered a Cup contender. As for the rest of the
conference, every team as a fatal flaw that will knock them out of the
box, from lack of defensive depth in Washington (but hey Caps fans,
you get to watch Ovechkin every night) to instability in places like
New York and Carolina. And though we're a big fan, maybe just maybe
this year is the one in which Martin Brodeur becomes a mere mortal, if
it does occur the Devils look more like a 13th place team than a 99
point club.
So for the third season in a row, the
eventual NHL champion will come out of the Western Conference. Since
we've already discounted the possibility of a Red Wings reprise, there
are both pretenders and contenders that can emerge to face a growing,
hungry Pittsburgh sextet.
Vancouver – An over-the-hill Mats
Sundin didn't want to take $20 million to play in semi-retirement
here. Do you need any further analysis?
Nashville – Nice guys, nice team, forget them. Good enough to squeeze
in the Final Eight, bad enough to get busted out in the first round.
Dallas – They look tough. The Stars dispatched the Ducks in the 2007
post season without too much trouble and Marty Turco got the 600 pound
playoff gorilla off his back after a decade. Deep down the middle with
Mike Ribiero and Brad Richards and any team with Mike Modano as a
third line center has to be given serious consideration. But let's see
how team chemistry is affected with the acquisition of my LFP (least
favorite player), Sean Avery.
Anaheim – GM Brian Burke has a double whammy going. His team lacks
scoring depth despite the fact that he's at the salary cap; he even
had to place Mathieu Schneider on waivers so he could free up space to
sign Teemu Selanne. That move didn't work as Schneider went unclaimed;
Burke's now reduced to trying to find a taker in return for a
prospect. They hope to get currency from the fact that Selanne and
Scott Niedermayer. But the biggest distraction for this team may be
the off ice ones specifically owner Henry Samueli's legal issues and
the constant and increasing whispers about Burke going to Toronto.
Calgary – If you're one of the Sea of Red, don't you wish you had Game
7 of the 2004 Finals back again? They lost Kristian Huselius, who
blossomed in the Prairies and gained Mike Cammalleri, who is projected
to the guy to set up perennial MVP candidate Jarome Iginla. They don't
look much more than a second round elimination.
Minnesota – The poster boys for NHL playoff underachievement primarily
because of the lack of scoring. So what do they do to replace Brian
Rolston and Pavol Demitra? If a marginal Colorado Avalanche team could
bust them out, that spells P-R-E-T-E-N-D-E-R. Look for major
organizational changes with another playoff underachievement.
San Jose – Different faces, same results? Dan Boyle and Rob Blake try
to replace the departed Brian Campbell. Todd McClellan replaces the
egomaniacal Ron Wilson (good luck to you Buds fans with this guy), but
unless you're coaching the 1971 Canadiens, you're not winning the Cup
out of the box.
So I've excused virtually all the Western Conference big boys, so
where does that leave me? Not one to worry about being laughed at for
predictions because readers forget about them right around November
1st, I'm going with a team that failed to make the playoffs last year.
That's right, even though more than 50 percent of the teams qualify
for the NHL post season; I'll go with one that was on the outside
looking in at Game 82.
A few years ago I lived in Chicago for six months, if you've never
been there, it's a fabulous city.
Except for the weather.
If you live in Edmonton or Calgary, you might think the winters are
balmy there but unless you enjoy seeing snow fall sideways from the
wind blowing, the winters are probably not for you. This is from a guy
who moved from Tampa to the Windy City in JANUARY, went from driving
in a convertible with the top down to a 7 degree arrival on the shores
of Lake Michigan. When you finally do defrost, the city's nightlife,
cuisine and most importantly, people, are the finest this nation has
to offer and I've lived in all three major metro areas (NY and LA).
But did I mention that it gets cold there?
Chicago has very passionate sports fans and that includes Blackhawk
fans. Despite the fact that the departed Bill Wirtz ran the franchise
like a family business and not a professional sports franchise, they
kept coming. Despite the fact that home games were never televised,
they still packed the decrepit Chicago Stadium and the spacious United
Center. But with little success since the early 90’s, the crowds
started to dissipate, as with any smart legions of fans, when the
product turns bad, you vote with your feet.
Wirtz’s passing became a remedy to
the team; the ineffective old boy’s network was eliminated by Rocky
Wirtz, a surviving son. Dale Tallon was installed as the new GM and
legend Denis Savard brought a fiery personality behind the bench. The
organization was good and lucky in having the fortune of drafting both
Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (installed as the third youngest
captain in NHL history) in back to back seasons. The organization’s
paradigm shift will be completed this season when all 82 games will be
televised in local TV including 20 on over the air WGN Channel 9 and
so the fans came back.
They were repaid by the Hawks with an 88 point season, missing a
playoff spot by only three points, a 17 point improvement in the
difficult West. More important than the close playoff call was their
style of play; high scoring, fun with youthful exuberance. With Kane
and Toews lapping up all of the limelight, virtually unnoticed Patrick
Sharp turned in an MVP season for Chicago, 36 goals, a +23 rating
combined with nine powerplay and seven shorthanded markers. Tallon
refused to leverage the entire season on his home grown talent, making
two big plays in the summer free agent market, acquiring the defensive
plum of the class in Brian Campbell and netminder Cristobal Huet (Bob
Gainey’s still lamenting that trade, eh?). Campbell gives Chicago a
missing piece of the puzzle in a puck moving defenseman to augment the
young and talented backliners, Duncan Keith, Dustin Byfuglien, James
Wisniewski and Brent Seabrook. With the trade of veteran Robert Lang
to Montreal, they simultaneous eliminate a player who failed to play
defense and has always been a distraction in the locker room going
back to his days in Los Angeles.
As the season opens, the Hawks still have questions to answer. They
have Nikolai Khabibulin coming off a mediocre season and with a
whopping $6.75 million salary on the books (they have $12.3 million
dedicated to goaltending when you add Huet’s deal). Tallon doesn't
want an unhappy big salary player on the bench and it’s imperative
they deal him away (probably pay half the contract to do so) as to not
cause any locker room problems. Martin Havlat could be the difference
maker for this team. Coming off a 25 goal year in 06-07, Havlat
struggled through an injury racked season appearing in only 35 games
and scored 10 goals. Havlat will have additional motivation as he’s in
the last year of a 3 year, $18 million deal, funny how players stand
up in a salary drive season.
The biggest addition to the organization may be the addition of an
individual who won’t make a save, score a goal or throw a punch this
season or any time soon. Scotty Bowman, the author of 11 Stanley Cup
winners stepped away from his consultant’s role with Detroit to take
the post of Senior Advisor of Hockey Operations. While part of
Bowman’s motivation stems from the fact that his son Stan is the
Blackhawks director of hockey operations, it’s doubtful he would take
the role if he thought Chicago wasn’t close to the ultimate prize.
So with the right combination of apathy from the champs and
underachieving from the contenders, I like Chicago Blackhawks to end
the 37 year Stanley Cup draught (second longest in the NHL to the
Toronto Maple Leafs) in the City of Big Shoulders.
A long shot? Sure, but I’ll just
point you in the direction of the 2003-04 Tampa Bay Lightning as a
reference point and no one will be shivering on Madison Street in
downtown Chicago for the victory parade because it will be held in
June.
Dennis
Bernstein, the man behind SCORE! Media and an NHL
Analyst with ESPN Radio, is the Los Angeles
Correspondent for The Fourth Period Magazine and a Columnist
for TheFourthPeriod.com.
