Murray's Choice
Anaheim Ducks General Manager Bob Murray may soon be faced with the most
difficult decision of his managerial career.
LOS ANGELES -- As the reverberations of the Brian Burke firing hit the
Pacific shores, one of his successors will be feeling the heat around
his heels shortly.
The Anaheim Ducks franchise is at a crossroads; the coming weeks will
define if this team stays legitimate or hits full rebuild mode.
They've missed the playoffs two out of the last three years and fell
to the Pacific Division basement off a disastrous 80 point 2011-12
season, 19 points off the pace of their prior campaign. They've only
gone deeper than one playoff round once in the past five years leading
to dwindling crowds and the speculation that they're one of the 'dire
straits' teams that needed revenue sharing help during the CBA battle.
While the team staggers on and off the ice, the even-worse news is
that the organizational depth won't bring much help any time soon.
While possessing two youngsters with good upside in Luca Sbisa and Cam
Fowler on the blueline, the lack of NHL-ready talent forced GM Bob
Murray to make the questionable signings of aging veterans Sheldon
Souray and Bryan Allen to overpriced three-year deals over the summer.
Devante Smith-Pelly is likely to develop into a nice power forward and
2010 first-round pick Emerson Etem may provide further skill on the
wing down the line, but the Ducks enter the season without a
legitimate No. 2 center.
Nick Bonnino could be the incumbent over time and Saku Koivu makes
Teemu Selanne's last season much happier, but neither pivot is the man
to come over the boards after Ryan Getzlaf. The depth chart in the
middle makes it impossible for Anaheim to be competitive in the
Western Conference. There still is talent upfront with their four top
forwards: Getzlaf, Selanne, Corey Perry and Bobby Ryan, but their
statuses are the crux of Murray's impending dilemma.
Addressing Ryan, he's the one that the Ducks can't afford to move;
he's a pure scorer who was seventh in the league in even-strength
goals last season. His ability to get to the 30 goal plateau without
being on the Ducks first unit powerplay is a further proof of his
offensive skills. Ryan and former coach Randy Carlyle had ongoing beef
and Ducks fans hope that Bruce Boudreau will let Bobby be Bobby, give
him more time on the powerplay in an effort to get him more scoring
opportunities. In a full 82 game season, he's a legit 40 goal scorer
with the proper coaching.
The lone bright spot of this year may be the last waltz of Teemu
Selanne and all hockey fans should be grateful that the L word didn't
rob us of a victory lap by the Finnish Flash. A true ambassador of the
game and a role model for players like Perry, he may be facing a
decision come the April trade deadline. Selanne possesses a
no-movement clause in his one-year deal and if the Ducks waddle
outside of a playoff spot as expected, Murray may give Teemu the
option of one last run at a Stanley Cup. It's always been the plan to
retire in a Ducks sweater, but to see his final days played in games
of no consequence should be a call left to the future Hall of Famer.
While the status of Ryan and Selanne is simple math, the destiny of
the latter two -- and with it the short-term future of the franchise
-- is at hand.
Barring a miracle when they drop the puck for real in nine days, both
Getzlaf and Perry will skate into their walk year of twin five-year,
$26.5 million deals. Neither star players has addressed their contract
status publicly during the lockout, though Murray was adamant last
June about his goal.
"I think it's imperative for the hockey team. We've reached out to the
agents and that will be an ongoing process. I don't think it's going
to happen overnight. But we've reached out to both sides," said
Murray.
Further impacting the scenario is the Ducks' financial situation;
Forbes.com's annual valuation of NHL franchises in November of 2012
estimated Anaheim incurring an operating loss of $10 million for the
last fiscal year. While the Ducks have plenty of cap space next season
(Teemu, Saku and Toni Lydman will free up over $11 million), it's
unclear whether ownership still has the inclination to committing in
the neighborhood of $100 million for two players.
Management's stress level goes higher considering both players can
just play out the string and listen to numerous pitches from
contenders (here's a scary scenario, Sidney Crosby feeding Corey Perry
for 82 games) with deep pockets. That's why in a 48 game schedule,
it's imperative for the Ducks to get out of the gate fast and that is
the antithesis of the last two seasons. If Anaheim came with a 7-3
start, it's an easier sell that continuing their careers in Southern
California is the right choice. The likelihood of a big start isn't
reality; only if the Ducks can convince the NHL that they could open
with 10 straight against Columbus do they have a shot of a big opening
run.
My scenario sees an end game like this: The Ducks will have to make a
choice, overpay one of their stars on a long-term extension and trade
the other to the highest bidder to bring back the assets to build
around the long remaining superstar.
Comparing Perry and Getzlaf would seem to be a simple exercise;
Corey's been clutch, two seasons removed from a 50 goal, Hart Trophy
season, and his competitive nature burns every night, always willing
to chirp the opposition and among the league leaders in that skill
too.
Getzlaf's stats have been in decline, he's gone from 91 points in
2008-09 to a 57-point season last year that was a failure in every
way. Aside from the precipitous drop in production, lowlighted by a
season low 11 goals, the big center was a minus player for the first
time in his career (-11 was the worst of any Ducks forward) and his
faceoff percentage landed at a shade over 47%. His penchant for taking
bad penalties at crucial times increased and there were whispers he
was resistant to work at his game to improve, primarily in the faceoff
circle.
So it's a no brainer, move the underachiever and keep former MVP,
right?
Not exactly.
The winning NHL franchises' formula has been uniform over the past few
seasons. Goaltending and defense are a must, but the teams in it to
win have strength down the middle. Murray need do nothing more than
look 50 miles north to Los Angeles and see how Dean Lombardi crafted
his championship roster.
Even with the magnificence of Jonathan Quick between the pipes and the
stellar work of Drew Doughty, the Kings don't raise the banner next
Saturday if they don't go Anze Kopitar-Mike Richards-Jarret Stoll down
the middle.
And therein lies the rub for the Ducks, they've got the proverbial
hole in the middle of the doughnut roster. It's hard to justify
trading away your first line center when you don't have a capable No.
2, and the prospects in the system only project as marginal NHL
centers. While the Toronto Maple Leafs are begging for a No. 1 center,
their depth chart doesn't have the assets that makes sense for the
Ducks to pull the trigger and release the pivot.
As painful as it might be, if the Ducks had to make a choice between
the two, they're better served dealing Perry to a contender.
Not only will he bring back multiple assets, but he can surely fetch
that elusive No. 2 center the Ducks have lacked since the departure of
Andy McDonald.
Normally a deal for a star with an expiring contract would fetch a
return below market value, but the 48-game season would give the Ducks
a break if they put the "For Sale" out early. If Murray puts the word
out that Perry is available, he could have upwards of 10 teams
legitimately willing to ask what the bounty would be for his greatest
asset.
Regardless of what move Murray thinks serves the greatest good, he
must get an answer on both Perry and Getzlaf's intention by the end of
the month. In turn, the players need to do the right thing and give
the franchise the early opportunity to get a premium exchange if their
intention is to self-pluck their feathers and fly away from Southern
California.
