Buyouts for all!
If the NHL and NHLPA can agree on a new CBA and save this season, the summer's
activities leading up to the 2013-14 campaign will be entertaining to watch.
CHICAGO -- This week's CBA negotiations presented the long-expected
and much-anticipated concept of amnesty to the world.
According to reports, the League has floated the idea of each team
being able to buyout up to two players to get under a new, lower
salary cap. The Players' salaries would still count against Hockey
Related Revenue, but would no longer impact the team cap number.
There had been some talk about amnesty being part of the new CBA, but
the idea appears to be much more real and defined now; the cap relief
would be available to teams during this upcoming offseason (before a
2013-14 season started).
While we don't yet know where the cap will eventually settle, it's
reasonable to split the difference between the players' number ($65M)
and the owners' ($60M) and use $62M as a theoretical cap (see what I
did there?). If we use that number, though, there will be some general
managers with no finger nails, friends or available minutes on their
phone plan by the time October arrives.
Some teams, like Philadelphia (Chris Pronger) and Boston (Marc Savard),
could look at the amnesty as a way to accelerate the inevitable
"retirement" of two injured stars that won't likely play again.
Others, like Chicago, will be able to use their amnesty to clear out a
crowded roster or make way for prospects; the Blackhawks might opt to
buy out veterans like Johnny Oduya and Steve Montador, both
defensemen, because organizational depth could provide an inexpensive,
internal replacement.
When the NBA allowed amnesty, there was a flurry of trades moving
big-money contracts for what appeared to be nothing on paper. NHL fans
should look at this template for chaos as an expectation if/when
amnesty becomes a reality for teams. Not only will names change on
lockers, but the power struggle across the league could be entirely
different.
However, there could be some big names moving, one way or another,
before the dust settles.
Obviously the summer spending spree spiked the payroll in Minnesota,
but they aren't in a terrible position going into this summer. They
have just over $51M committed to 16 players and have some prospects --
Charlie Coyle, Zack Phillips, Jason Zucker and, eventually, Mathew
Dumba -- that could affordably fill out their roster on entry level
contracts.
But if Minnesota wanted additional cap space, they might consider
parting ways with Dany Heatley and his $7.5M cap number. Indeed, with
only the 2013-14 season remaining on Heatley's contract, he could
become a popular trade piece for teams looking to move longer deals
with large cap numbers.
The future facing other organizations, like the Vancouver Canucks,
isn't nearly as survivable.
Vancouver has over $55M committed to only 13 players for the 2013-14
season, affording them an average of less than $1M per spot to fill
out a 20-man roster. If they were able to trade Roberto Luongo --
which might be more possible before the amnesty period -- and used
their two amnesty buyouts on Keith Ballard and David Booth, for
example, they could have roughly $20M in cap space to fill 10 spots on
their roster (minus the players/salaries brought back in a Luongo
deal).
Sound rough? It will be... and both Sedins will be unrestricted free
agents in 2014.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in a
similar potential cal hell as the Canucks. The Bolts have over $57.5M
already committed to only 15 players for the 2013-14 season, giving
them little/no flexibility to fill out their roster.
Could a lower cap ceiling mean the end of Vinny Lecavalier in Tampa?
With almost a full decade left on his contract, and the $7.7M cap
number attached to those years, there's a real chance he could be on
the market.
Two big-market teams could stand to benefit the most from the proposed
amnesty structure, which could make any potential movement from a
player like Lecavalier even more intriguing.
The Montreal Canadiens could (finally) get Scott Gomez and Tomas
Kaberle off their books, and they would have to; Montreal has over
$60M already committed to only 16 players for the 2013-14 season.
Clearing over $11.6M by moving Gomez and Kaberle could make Montreal
players in what could be a fascinating free agent and trade
environment.
Toronto might be the team that could immediately benefit most from a
lower cap and amnesty program. The Leafs have over $20M in available
cap space for 2013-14 with 13 players signed, none of whom would
appear to be buyout candidates.
Making the Leafs even more of a potential power player in the coming
months is the lack of long-term obligations on their payroll; Toronto
only has three players on their NHL roster signed for the 2014-15
season. If a team needed to move a long-term contract on a quality
player (cough, Lecavalier), Toronto has ample cap space to fit
the deal moving forward.
Fans should be ready for previously-unthinkable trade scenarios to
become reality, and some household names to become free agents.
