LAK POSTMORTEM: PROGRESSION? REGRESSION? PLATEAUING.

LOS ANGELES, CA — Given the Los Angeles Kings preseason declarations, the thought of holding exit meetings and interviews during Cinco de Mayo was a worst-case scenario. They expected a fiesta of success by strategically adding what they thought was an impact forward to a 104-point team that would end the nine-year streak of Stanley Cup Playoffs failure.

But the aftermath of a disappointing five-game elimination at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers for a third consecutive season shows that if the Kings aren’t regressing, they have plateaued.

Facing anger and disappointment from the fanbase (the level of anger is questionable, more on that later) and claiming the same feelings run through the organization internally, General Manager Rob Blake kicked off his media availability with Luc Robitaille (who was noticeably quieter than his last appearance in October) by addressing the critics who suggested seven seasons at the helm was enough.

“I think we were making progress, (but) progress is not showing (in) the playoffs and that’s up to us to keep driving (success in the playoffs) this home with this group,” Blake said. “That was a very difficult end to this season, based off of where we project this team to get to and it’s up to us – so whether it’s the style we play, the incorporation of some younger players and how we make those strides – we’ve got to continue to keep going on to the next move.”

So, what needs to change? For every organization that doesn’t meet its goals, it’s about degrees of change.

What will change – The coach.

Jim Hiller reversed the course of a team that was headed for oblivion at the All-Star break. He lightened the mood around the team and re-instilled confidence after the 14 losses in 17 games collapse that prompted the dismissal of Todd McLellan, but like his predecessor, he couldn’t find a way to defeat the Edmonton Oilers in the postseason.

Hiller owned a big key to the third consecutive playoff loss – the failure of the powerplay, which he was directly responsible for – and though he did a commendable job, he didn’t lead the team to an achievable goal.  Despite Blake’s non-commitment to his status, I suspect he is not the leading candidate as they would have removed the interim tag either in-season or on its conclusion.

Keep this name in mind: former King, NHL coach and current coach of Seattle’s AHL affiliate – Dan Bylsma. Regardless of the selection, the incumbent’s first and most important job is to extract far more production and effort from PL Dubois.

What didn’t change – The management.

Though social media burned for a dismissal of Rob Blake, it carries no weight when it comes to ownership decisions: missing the playoffs and half-empty buildings do. It’s my understanding that season ticket holder renewals are in the same range as prior seasons and may be a tick ahead of last season, while team revenues are up season over season. That’s what drives decisions in the corporate world, so unless social media can galvanize the fan base to organize boycotts outside Crypto.com Arena to protest lack of front office change or mass season tickets cancellations, while aware of the outcry, it doesn’t impact critical franchise decisions.

Additionally, in another market with reactionary ownership, three straight playoffs failures to the same team would seal the deal for change but the affinity Philip Anschutz has for team President Luc Robitaille (he dismissed two-time Stanley Cup winning President/GM Dean Lombardi in favor of Robitaille) likely left the decision in the Hall of Famer’s hands. With one more season left on Blake’s deal and with only 11 of 32 NHL franchises having made the playoffs in past three seasons, it wasn’t the all-out disaster that would warrant a dismissal.

What must change – Let’s be clear, a fourth consecutive season with no playoff success should end the Blake administration. It should start with The System.

Yes, the good old 1-3-1, a necessity when the team bottomed out and proven veterans who won Cup were sent to various destinations through North America. McLellan’s system evened the odds, made them competitive and eventually produced playoff qualification. But now, with the talent level raised appreciably, the commitment to this passive system must end. Constraint does not work in the playoffs and a change to a more aggressive system will be welcomed by more than a few players.

The players voiced mixed feelings about the current scheme with Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala leaning towards a change while Trevor Moore thought the chatter around the system, saying the team adapted to a 1-2-2 defensive alignment later in the season and teams like the Rangers and Lightning use some form of the 1-3-1.

The goalie – The organization scrimped and saved to bring in Dubois at the cost of acquiring a goaltender that could single-handedly win them games. Blake got value for the money he spent on Cam Talbot, Pheonix Copley and David Rittich, but all are system goaltenders – their numbers were a function of the defensive style, Talbot admitted in the season-end availability that playing behind the defensive scheme was a help to his statistics.

But if the organization is going to change its on-ice identity to a more aggressive one, they will need a goalie who can give you wins with the occasional 35-save performance in a game where chances are traded. The Kings own the 21st overall pick in the June NHL Draft and when I asked Blake if the pick could be wheeled to acquire a top-level goalie, he was non-committal.

The depth chart – I asked Dubois if a move to left wing would help next season, a position with less thinking and more reacting, his response was, “I see myself as a center.” I asked Byfield if he’s now at home at left wing given his breakout season, “I still see myself as a center.”

So, the good news is that Kings have at least five centers next season. The not-so-good news is that Dubois and Fiala were bottom-six forwards this season – it didn’t impair Fiala’s ability to create offense and while he played the most with Moore and Phil Danault when Viktor Arvidsson returned, Fiala was moved down on the depth chart. Dubois’ case is the opposite – he earned his role, some games as the 4C, and no effective games in the playoffs. But at least to start next season, Fiala and Dubois need to be elevated to more prominent roles.

The roster – Youth must be more impactful next season. This season had one emerging rookie and despite the hype, it wasn’t Brandt Clarke, Alex Turcotte or Sammy Fagemo. Discounting Byfield’s breakout season (expected for a second-overall pick), Alex Laferriere took Arthur Kaliyev’s role and became a new version of Alex Iafallo – adapting to various spots along the forward wall and providing a dozen goals with 13 minutes of playing time.

It’s possible the Kings will chase a free agent winger that provides offense that a healthy Viktor Arvidsson was supposed to (Jake DeBrusk would be an upgrade), but it’s more a question of how much change comes to the bottom-six.

Trevor Lewis is 26 games short of the 1,000 games played mark and while he would love to set the mark in a Kings sweater, it would have to be in a lesser role – some nights the extra forward, certainly not an 82-game player. If he doesn’t return to Los Angeles, an even better place to hit that milestone would be in his home state with a homecoming as a member of the former Coyotes/new Utah Question Marks.

Blake Lizotte has defied the odds as a solid contributor for five full seasons and a role model for those who are told ‘you can’t do it.’ But with an undersized roster that needs more bulk, is it time for a fresh look at the fourth-line center role?

With no big changes on the blueline from a physicality perspective (Clarke will take the minutes from Matt Roy’s departure through unrestricted free agency). Think players like Nic Roy in Vegas, Michael McCarron in Nashville and Nick Bjugstad in Ari, er, Utah. One of the impairments of bringing more size to the back line is having a third pair defenseman (Jordan Spence) running the second-unit powerplay. Most teams usually have a second pair defenseman running that unit allowing for the third pair to have more physical players (Vancouver’s Soucy/Myers/Zadorov, Edmonton’s Desharnais/Kulak/Ceci). Clarke’s assumed presence on the second pair and powerplay unit allows for another option on the third pair in a less offensive but more physical role.

Drafting and Development – Every organization will have more hits than misses but ask yourself who behind Byfield (and likely Clarke) is the next core of this team. Who is the next 30-goal scorer? Who are the middle pair defensemen two seasons from now?

The organization has drafted 48 players in seven drafts during the Blake/Robitaille era including six first rounders and you can count on one hand the number of impact players they landed. Only of the three picks in the top eight have emerged (Byfield), the late first rounders are on other teams (Bjornfot and Kupari) and the most productive second-round pick statistically is not going to be on the roster next season (Kaliyev). Mark Yannetti still has one of the sharpest minds when it comes to amateur scouting but the profile of the type of player they select must change given the lack of overall success.

Other than throwing the 6’5” Andre Lee and the 6’6” Samuel Helenius out on a kids fourth line next season, there’s still not much size in the organization, one of the factors in the three consecutive playoffs losses to the Oilers. While the Kings physicality showed up on the scoresheet in the hits column and there was push back, this team does not punish the opposition. Taking the first push, not reacting to it with more snarl and bite to the roster can be a component to post-season success.

What won’t change – Blake ended the speculation about a Dubois buyout and though the case made for buying out his contract at 1/3 of the original total was reasonable, the reality is that the ownership would never allow the organization to pay a player $27 million not to play for the team. Could a trade be possible? It would take a Hall of Fame sell job from the Hall of Famers but consider this: If you were a scout for a potential trade target team and with your job on the line, would you recommend trading for Dubois, right now?

GOING FORWARD

What was supposed to be a pivotal season in the progression of the Los Angeles Kings franchise to championship level contender disintegrated amid the 14 losses in 17 games stretch which the team bounced back from but never reattained the level of its 16-4-3 start. To characterize the season as a disaster isn’t accurate but with Kopitar turning 37 this summer and Doughty 35 in-season, the balance of the roster must raise their level of play for next season to put Los Angeles in the class of legitimate contender, a status that the front office needs to stay in place.

AND THANKS...

This is the last column for the 2023-24 LAK season – I’ll be back in June for the NHL Draft and Free Agent Frenzy and there are plenty of people to thank. It always starts with the fans, the ones that make the sport so great. Those who know us well know that we don’t spend intermissions in the press box but venture out to the concourse to interact with the fans. It’s humbling to get affirmation from people that pay their hard-earned money to attend games that our content enhances their experience as well.

I also appreciate the Kings organization asking me to appear on the home radio broadcast with Jesse Cohen for the home playoffs games – a first for me. And I can’t end without mentioning Zach Dooley – the best version of the LAK Insider – who works as hard as any media person I’ve come across.

The season is far from over for me – you’ll hear me on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio for the balance, both on The Hot Stove every Saturday from 8-10AM Pacific as well as an occasional host on The Power Play with Steve Kouleas from noon-3PM Pacific (check your local listings). We’ll wrap up the season co-hosting the Stanley Cup Final Pregame Show for SXM NHL with my partner in crime, David Pagnotta, and then be in Las Vegas for the NHL Draft as part of SXM NHL’s contingent.